Is Bermuda?s Independence near? Unlikely.

The debate over Bermuda?s Independence continues with intensity, but without much success in a country that possessed self-rule for centuries.

The tsunami tragedy has absorbed the Island colony, but a political tsunami that will bring on Independence is not likely to occur.

Recent polls indicate that more than 60 percent of Bermudians shun Independence.

Bermuda?s Premier Alex Scott leads the Independence movement, but according to polls, he almost goes out of his way to misinterpret public sentiment on the issue, which could politically cost him dearly.

Were Bermuda to gain autonomy, little would in fact change, because when it comes to internal issues, its Government possesses plenary power.

The Island of Bermuda has been a British colony since 1684, and relations between the two have almost always been amicable, even as talk of the Island gaining its Independence has become more frequent. Today, Bermuda is one of few entities in the world that has willingly maintained it dependant status. Rather than torrid nationalism, its politics are fuelled by torpid debate and hyper concern that nothing threatens the political golden goose of commercialism. The call for complete sovereignty is indisputably identified with Premier Alex Scott, after it emerged as a sizzling movement loosely associated with that of ?black power?, which has gained considerable ascendancy on the Island in the 1980s. Scott passionately believes that Independence would dramatically alter the tiny Island of just 20.75 square miles for the better. However, according to opinion polls, most Bermudians are happy with the political status quo and the relative prosperity it provides them. Despite declining approval ratings, Scott appears ready to put his political career on the line, willing to risk his personal political future in order to achieve Independence for Bermuda. Scott came to power in July, 2003, after the Progressive Labour Party (PLP) defeated the predominantly white United Bermuda Party (UBP) in parliamentary elections by 22 seats to 14. He replaced then-leader of the PLP, Premier Jennifer Smith, after an internal revolt in which party members refused to serve under her administration; mainly, they resented the autocratic style of Colonel David Burch, her unelected aide and senator. Scott, who had previously served as Works and Engineering Minister, was the popular contender for the premiership, which he later won in a party vote.

In a May, 2004 survey conducted by the Bermuda Sun newspaper and Research Innovations, an independent Island polling firm, 61.4 percent of Bermudians said that they were opposed to Independence. 21.4 percent supported the move and 17.2 percent were undecided.

These figures graphically indicated that a decisive majority of Islanders are happy under nominal British rule and believe that achieving sovereignty would do little to improve the well-being of the colony or its citizens. Despite its status as a British colony, the Island enjoys full self-rule regarding internal affairs, and a close and privileged relationship with the United States, with a majority of its imports and tourism coming from its powerful neighbour. Britain does not even rank among Bermuda?s top five trading partners, and has adopted an amiable laissez-faire approach to governing the Island. In practice, Bermuda?s parliamentary system enjoys a plenary degree of self-governing autonomy and essentially functions independently of its imperial mother on a daily basis.

Bermuda is also more than capable of sustaining itself economically. With an economy based on tourism and a very strong international financial services sector, the Island numbering 64,935 permanent residents enjoys one of the highest per capita incomes in the world ? equal to that of the United States. Bermuda?s lack of sovereignty clearly does not hurt its economic prospects and self-sufficiency. As a strong proponent of his country?s Independence, however, Premier Scott strongly feels otherwise and is attempting on an urgent basis to return the issue of the future status of the Island to the limelight, in spite of its persistent frosty public reception.

During the 1970s, a tumultuous period featuring racial tensions on the Island, talk about black power and separation from Britain began to gain impetus. For the next number of years, the issue waxed and waned, but a referendum staged in 1995 calling for an end to colonial rule failed to show much progress for its advocates, with almost three-quarters of the electorate voting against it. Scott is betting that public sentiment has changed since then, and is pushing for another vote on the issue.

In a November 14 speech delivered to the Bermuda Society Annual Dinner in London, he announced that in January, 2005, the newly formed Bermuda Independence Committee (BIC), ?a broad-based group enjoying wide representation and a diversity of views, will begin to generate and encourage the widest possible discussion on Independence in all of its facets.?

Once the initiative starts gaining tempo, Scott hopes that the majority of its members will fall in line behind the belief that Bermuda should seek the autonomy he feels it deserves and is ready for. Yet Scott?s failure to adjust to the hard fact that the majority of Bermudians have shown no inclination for Independence is a handicap which could seriously jeopardise his political career. Almost purposefully misinterpreting the Research Innovations poll, Scott even told newspaper that, ?there is another very significant finding from a poll conducted by the Omnibus Group ? I think that?s their corporate title ? that more than 70 percent of individuals polled indicated that they wished to have [more information on Independence.?

Despite the overwhelming opposition to independence among Islanders, Scott argues with the rival UBP over how the question of Independence should be framed. In his desire to avoid the same outcome that resulted in 1995, the Premier would like the issue to be decided by means of a General Election. The UBP, on the other hand, prefers to settle the matter by means of a referendum. Such arguments seem to somewhat miss the point, however, since there is little difference between the two forms of balloting, and especially because current public sentiment has indicated that the measure has no hope of passing in either dress. Pushing the question of Independence further into the political forefront has done little to help Scott?s own political standing. Misinterpreting the results of the survey and advocating something

Bermudians do not support will not boost the Premier?s ever-declining approval rating, which currently registers at an alarming (from his perspective) 37.3 percent (down from 80 percent a year ago). In Scott?s words: ?Bermudians are unique. We want change but we don?t want things to change.? Bermuda?s switch to a sovereign nation would mark a huge change, one that its citizens apparently do not desire, at least at this time. From Scott?s disappointed perspective from the capital of Hamilton, too many Islanders presently feel that granting the Island Independence would only create new problems, something the Bermudan Government, under its current colonial status, has never had to face.

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