'Labour and Home Affairs Minister has called for a cap on work permits' - The Royal Gazette

'...Kit Astwood released statistics which showed projected jobs in the Bermuda economy were rising steadily while the local population wasn't rising nearly so fast.'

'Based on an average growth rate of two percent per year there would be two jobs for every Bermudian in the workforce by 2016.' - Kit Astwood, Chairman of the Chamber of Commerce Economic Committee

@EDITRULE:

Imagine that it's the year 2013, and Bermuda has a population of between 67,000 to 70,000 people. This Bermuda is also a small, yet robust city-state, which is very urbanised, and one that has an ageing local population. In addition, it possesses a younger on average foreign population that represents 30 to 40 percent of its total workforce.

Fanciful, you suggest, but is it really? In all likelihood, if we do maintain our current model of economic development this indeed will be the reality that we will be confronted with within a decade. The question is however - as previously stated by myself and others - is this future one that Bermudians want or are prepared to accept?

And if they are, are they prepared to make the necessary decisions to accommodate the type of economic and population growth that current trends make inevitable and necessary? Decisions such as high rise (seven to ten storeys) housing development not just in Hamilton but even outside of it. What about land reclamation to create more available land and thus space? And what will we do about the traffic?

What about the growing economic divide that is occurring in our society between rising numbers of have-nots, groaning under the artificially high cost of living and the very affluent ten percent of the population? Has this been the downside to our integration into the so-called global economy? Is our environment already overtaxed and is our quality of life fraying? Is Bermuda fated to be only a place for the idle rich, while the ranks of the underclass grow?

Do we have a workable alternative, that will allow us to maintain our standard of living, while at the same time reprioritise our economy and rethink our notion of what constitutes success in a highly materialistic, consumer driven society? Or will we be forced to rein in the chief engine for growth over the last ten years, which has been predicated upon the continued expansion of international business on the Island? This question gets very complex, very quickly.

How complex? Read the following: Let's say that tomorrow morning we will all wake up and find that the Club Med facility, freshly painted and outfitted, is ready to open. There is only one hitch; it will need at least 350 workers immediately. My guess would be, that the owners would find it very difficult to obtain even 70 Bermudian workers and half of them would probably have to be poached from other employers. The other 280 workers of course would have to be imported from overseas.

From a cost benefit perspective, would it be in our interest to allow the hotel to open at this time? Probably not, when one figures that at least 150 of those foreign workers would have to be housed off-site, further burdening hard pressed Bermudians in the housing market. Additionally, some will arrive with families, especially the mid to upper level staff. So maybe we are not talking about 280 people but more than likely significantly more. All of these individuals, in addition to housing, will require transportation (cars and bikes) and other services. In an economy such as this, at what point does it begin to serve foreign interests (capital/workers) far more than the interests of Bermudians? And have we reached that point yet? What is the sustainable carrying capacity for Bermuda?

Certainly, the news as reported by this newspaper that the current Minister of Labour and Home Affairs Terry Lister - coming on the heels of the just released Census - is now prepared to examine and facilitate a broad based debate on the issue of work permits and thus ultimately on sustainable development for Bermuda, is a welcome one and long overdue.

Many within the Government, whom I am tempted to name but won't, who I characterise as being on the right wing of the Party, have responded to critics who have questioned the growth of the foreign working population by throwing their hands up in the air while proceeding to put on their best Pontius Pilate-like garb. This almost ritual washing of the hands would usually be followed by proclamations that somehow this growth was due to the fact that too many Bermudians, either did not want to work, were lazy or they (re: Black men) were sitting on walls or some variation of all of the above.

That final claim was not only laughable but also highly dubious as an explanation for what is actually occurring within our workforce and economy. Full employment or over employment means that every employable Bermudian that wants to work is likely working, some with two jobs.

As an exercise, let's assume that their are at least ten "wall sitting" spots between Dockyard and St. George's and at each spot there are at least 30 permanent "wall sitters" per spot. This gives you a total of 300 individuals. Never mind that at most spots during a working day you would be lucky to find at most seven individuals per spot because the other 23 or so would be at work, gainfully employed, many in the booming construction sector. However, sticking to the 30 per spot figure and the 300-combined total, what percentage of our total workforce does that 300 represent? About 0.7 or 0.8 percent.

Meanwhile, we do know that there are approximately 7,500 to 8,000 work permits currently issued, which can only lead one to conclude that even with all hands on deck which would include the 300 Bermudian "wall sitters", we would still be left with a labour pool that in all probability would still include 7,500 to 8,000 foreign workers on work permits. This figure as of 2003 now represents approximately 23 percent of the total working population. In fact, in real terms, there has been an approximately 20 percent growth in the foreign workforce here on work permits over the last four years alone.

Indeed there has been something of a disconnect between cause and effect on this very complex issue. Yet, many Bermudians, particularly black Bermudians, much like some of our politicians, when asked their opinion on the growth of the foreign workforce seem to be totally unaware that Bermuda's economy suffers from significant over-employment. This is also a trend that is likely to continue and even increase over the course of this decade if our economy continues to experience the rates of growth registered in the 90s (on average two percent per year).

These perceptions will also make it more difficult for the Government to begin to tackle these issues simply because too many are confusing the structural problems associated with the economy itself, such as underemployment, seasonal employment, low wages and overall opportunity issues, which Bermudians have a right to be concerned about, with the larger macro-economic issue of over-employment and the implications of that for our mid- to long-term future, within a sustainable context.

Obviously, as alluded to by the Minister, the early challenge will be to ensure that most Bermudians first understand the nature of the issue at hand. Secondly, they then must be given the tools and or information from a variety of sources (public/private sector, scientific) that they will need to enable them to make informed decisions. It is only then can we hope to begin the process of arriving at a point were a majority consensus is even possible on the way forward in terms of solutions.

Allow me to close with a continuation of the potential scenario that I began with in my opening paragraph which draws on the point(s) raised by Kit Astwood. Again it's the year 2013 and the average age of a Bermudian is now 40 years of age (37yrs, 2001 census). The number of Bermudians who are deemed elderly now form just under a third of the indigenous population as the baby boomers begin to join the ranks of the retired.

Actually certain segments of the Bermudian population such as our Black population have begun to shrink, largely due to the low fertility rates of Black Bermudian women over the preceding two decades; a reality not paralleled by Bermuda's White population which continues to grow, largely through the influx of White immigrant groups as occurred in the 70's, 80's and 90's.

In fact, by this time another trend that began in the late '90s has continued unabated. In 2013 we will witness a Bermuda that not only depends on foreign expertise at the top end of the economy but also significant numbers of foreign workers imported from the Indian Subcontinent, the Philippines, the Caribbean and China to name a few, who will perform a greater proportion of tasks that were traditionally dominated by African Bermudians among others, a significant percentage of those "Old Bermudians" now firmly in retirement by 2013, with many trying to survive on less than adequate pensions.

It will be a Bermuda radically different than that which exists even now. Unless!