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Leadership challenge

Deputy Premier Dr. Ewart Brown?s announcement that he will challenge Premier Alex Scott for the leadership of the Progressive Labour Party, and therefore the government, does not present the PLP?s delegates with a choice between two perfect candidates.

Both have strengths and weaknesses. It is one of the peculiarities of the Westminster system that 150 people, many of whom hold no elected position, will now decide whether or not Bermuda will have a new Premier or not in a few weeks.

It will be up to the PLP?s delegates to decide which of the two likely candidates is the better candidate ? or the less flawed one.

This is the most severe test of Mr. Scott?s leadership since he took on the Premiership in 2003 in the wake of the coup ? engineered at least in part by Dr. Brown ? against Dame Jennifer Smith.

Mr. Scott was widely seen then as a compromise candidate who could bridge the gap between the Smith and Brown camps, and it was also widely assumed that a further leadership challenge would take place.

Mr. Scott?s Premiership has not been entirely smooth sailing. After a brief honeymoon helped by his leadership during and after Hurricane Fabian, there has been a constant sense that the rhetoric has exceeded the reality.

To give him his due, he has tackled a number of issues that were neglected under Dame Jennifer, notably housing and the condition of senior citizens. But again ? and this may be one of the frustrations of government ? many of these measures have not occurred quickly enough and have led to growing frustration.

What the PLP?s delegates must decide is whether Mr. Scott will, or is able, to make the initiatives with which he is most closely identified, such as the Social Agenda and the sustainable development, more meaningful and substantial.

The other major initiative ? on Independence ? continues to go nowhere, and while it is no doubt popular with the PLP?s grassroots, it is hard to see how it is doing anything for the PLP?s electoral prospects.

The other major criticism of Mr. Scott is that he is indecisive, as voiced by former Cabinet Minister Renee Webb. Ms Webb may not be the most unbiased observer, but she raised issues like the hospital decision and Mr. Scott?s apparent reversal on whether Independence should be decided by election or referendum as examples of his inconsistency.

PLP delegates will have to decide if Mr. Scott is a flip-flopper or if he is politically astute enough to retreat in the face of public opinion. This newspaper tends to the latter view.

It cannot be said that Dr. Brown is indecisive. To the contrary he seems to have supreme confidence in his own abilities.

That?s not necessarily a bad thing, but obstinacy and a refusal to listen to advice can be dangerous.

He is undoubtedly effective, a view shared by the public as shown in most recent poll. In transport and in tourism, he has achieved results, expanding the ferry service and increasing airlift.

Certainly he must get some of the credit for the improvement in tourism this year, just as he would be criticised if it had fallen further. Dr. Brown also has a gift for publicity, but one wonders ? as in the case of yesterday?s announcement that he was close to signing an agreement on a golf tournament ? how much of it is opportunistic.

In transport, the endless fight over putting GPS in taxis used up a good deal of political capital and the jury is still out on whether the taxi service has actually improved.

Still, the big question Dr. Brown must overcome is on trust. Many PLP members have still not forgiven him for the ?we had to deceive you? speech and the conspiracy against Dame Jennifer, and more recently his speech at the Diaspora conference was disingenuous, to say the least.

Dr. Brown?s judgment was also called into question over his fundraising luncheon in Washington, DC with US pension fund advisors.

The delegates must not only weigh whether it is better not to change horses in midstream or if the challenger improves the party?s election prospects, but who will be the best person to lead all of Bermuda for at least the next two years.

It can only be hoped that they will make a considered decision.