It is not easy to overthrow a leader of the Progressive Labour Party - as many previous challengers have discovered.

That's because the leadership of the party does not follow the "usual" election process under the Westminster system.

Most political parties select their leaders through a vote by MPs. The person who gets a majority becomes the leader of the party and if that party has a majority of seats in the lower, elected House, the party leader also becomes government leader.

If the MPs are unhappy with their leader, they vote him or her out and select a new one.

The PLP, and some other parties, including the Canadian Liberal Party, give party members who are not elected officials a say in the vote. The PLP gives delegates of its branches votes at the party conference. The number of delegates each branch has depends on how many members it has. The leader of the PLP comes up for election every two years, although that may change to four years after the conference in November.

This system presents a quandary if the leader of the party loses the confidence of a majority of MPs in his or her party, as Premier Jennifer Smith seems close to doing, but retains the support of the party faithful.

For now, Ms Smith, seems to have majority support from her MPs if at least four of those who did not attend last Thursday's caucus voted for her. That may be enough, although it is far from a ringing endorsement of her leadership. It would not be a surprise now if a few other Cabinet Ministers began thinking about deserting her - or testing the waters for a leadership run of their own.

But does that matter if the PLP leader retains the support of the party faithful as opposed to the MPs? No one knows. The PLP has never been in power before, so the question has never arisen.

The dissident MPs have several options.

They can wait until November and find a new leadership candidate to back and challenge the Premier then at the conference, aware that the Premier's supporters will mobilise as many party member as possible to support her. They can try for a showdown in the House of Assembly itself, where they may wield more power. The PLP itself brought a motion of censure against then-Premier David Saul which gained the support of enough dissident United Bermuda Party MPs to succeed. It was not enough to bring Dr. Saul down, but it was a serious wound and he resigned later.

The other weapon available to the dissidents, again in conjunction with the Opposition, would be a no-confidence motion in the Government. If it was carried, the Governor would either have to try to identify a new leader of the PLP who retained the confidence of the majority of MPs or dissolve Parliament and call elections. Such action in the House could all bring down Ms Smith, but run the risk of bringing down the PLP too, much as the UBP's internal wars over Independence and McDonald's damaged that party in the last Parliament.

Indeed, bringing down the Government in order to bring down the Premier is unlikely. Instead, a challenge at the November conference seems the most likely course. That means a long hot summer of campaigning for the Premier and whoever her rival turns out to be.