“Information breeds confidence. Silence, breeds fear...”

- Unknown

Now that the election date has been finally set for July 24, I am now prepared to go on record with what may come as a shock to some - particularly those in the United Bermuda Party and to a small few in the taxi industry - and say that the Progressive Labour Party will likely win the next election in spite of - yes, in spite of - Jennifer Smith and those who she has surrounded herself with at Alaska Hall.

In other words, the gravy train provided to the United Bermuda Party by the Premier over the last three years will stop at the gate marked Election Day.

Now, I am going out on somewhat of a limb but I think my confidence is well founded as the Opposition continues to display a growing sense of optimism - even giddiness - about its prospects at the next poll.

Nonetheless, this upcoming election should have been about the ultimate survival of the UBP, post-November 1998, rather than one that posits them as fairly serious contenders, as appears to be the case today.

Under a Freddie Wade or some other savvy leader with a sense for strategic possibilities, one who would have utilised the political capital acquired in 1998 in a wiser fashion, instead of largely squandering it as the Premier has done, this General Election should have indeed been one that sounded the death knell for the UBP.

But why cry over spilt milk, the bottom line is that the Opposition party will more than likely lose - big cars, overseas trips, BHC, Berkeley and buses for Cuba be damned.

Here's why: First and foremost, they are still carrying the baggage that they accumulated over 30 years in power up until 1998. It has been said that Bermudians possess short memories but I don't think that they are that short.

Secondly, notwithstanding their cosmetic makeover a la ‘The New United Bermuda Party' the fact is that far too many of their candidates - hale fellows all I'm sure - just do not have the political experience or the name recognition to really be serious contenders in many of the constituencies. However, the party may find that the biggest impediment to victory may be the new electoral system itself.

As confirmed by some of the international observers during the talks and discussions that preceded and accompanied the eventual agreement and adoption of a first past the post single-seat electoral configuration, it was widely conceded that the UBP did enjoy an advantage under the soon to be discarded system. Various observers over the years have speculated that the UBP could count on up to anywhere between 12 and 14 seats, depending on the historical period under consideration, even before the first ballot was cast, without batting the proverbial eyelash.

Conversely, the new system does afford an advantage to the PLP, one that could have been even more pronounced if not for the bungling of the Premier and her appointed team. For example, a house of 31 or 33 seats would have really put the UBP at a serious disadvantage in that most of those predominately white residential pockets - read UBP voters - would have been subsumed by overwhelming black majorities.

It's not that every black voter is a PLP voter, yet I dare anyone to deny that the PLP derives at least 95 percent or more of its support from that community.

Cynically perhaps, one could make the claim that the newer, allegedly more progressive and blacker version of the UBP is that party's response to the new electoral realities. In a political system in which predominately black voters have been empowered - at least on paper - it would be foolhardy and politically suicidal to ignore issues that are important to them.

My predictions are that barring a total meltdown by the Government, when all is said and done at election day we will have a House of Assembly with either a 15 to 21 majority in favour of the PLP (best-case scenario) or one that sees the UBP achieve 16 to 17 seats, leaving the PLP with a razor-thin majority (absolute worst-case scenario), again, in favour of Alaska Hall.

Now this will be nothing for the PLP to crow about, especially after the tremendous historical victory of 1998. Received wisdom has it that leadership whether in politics or in many other endeavours does matter, yet it is a lesson that the PLP it appears, is determined to learn the hard way.

As for the nuts and bolts, both parties will fight the next election largely with their base or core support. Recent polls indicate a virtual dead heat and it is unlikely that those who are now sitting on the fence will cross over and vote for the Opposition.

Why? Because most of those on the fence are largely black, lower income and relatively young voters between the ages of 18 and 40. Many of these, young black men voted for the PLP at the last election, some for the first time, and made the real difference between the PLP winning 21 or 22 seats and the 26 that they eventually achieved. I just don't see them crossing over and voting for the Opposition and the polls thus far are confirming this analysis.

They are turned off, even bitterly disillusioned in some quarters, yet they are more likely to vote with their feet and stay away from the polls unless the PLP can once again give them something to believe in. Given all this, any advantage derived from the new electoral system by the PLP, as mentioned, thus becomes critical and even, perhaps, a game winner. After taking a look at the new electoral landscape it is evident to me that the UBP's strength is increasingly concentrated in the east of the country, St. George's and Smith's with parts of Devonshire and Hamilton Parish thrown in.

As one moves westward it's hard to see outside of Paget how they will be able to garner the necessary seats to win outright.

The electoral breakdown for the UBP follows:

St. George's - Three seats (failure to win three here and the game's up).

Smith's - Three seats (with Loyal Hill now part of Smith's North how safe is safe?)

Hamilton Parish - One (Sorry, Wayne, unless you are going across the Sound!)

Devonshire - Two.

Pembroke - Two (I'll return to this later).

Paget - Two (the safest two seats in Western civilisation).

Warwick - One (I'll also return to this one as well).

Southampton - One.

Sandys - None, Nanda, zip...

Total for the United Bermuda Party: 15

How does the UBP improve upon the above figure? Well, in addition to a very low black turnout, akin to what occurred during the last by-election, prayer wouldn't hurt, but if they can, for example, defeat Dale Butler in Warwick Northeast - a result that is possible despite Butler's hard work and determination - that would get them up to at least 16 seats.

Achieving that and with a similar result for them in Pembroke West Central, after all Neletha Butterfield has not been the brightest of stars on the Government benches, they could conceivably reach 17 seats, resulting in a one-seat majority for the present Government once the Speaker is selected. But, after that, the crystal ball just gets too cloudy. All of this gets them close... but still, no prize!

Their are other imponderables or variables as well. Smith's North, for example, which has now virtually all of Loyal Hill Devonshire - a traditional PLP stronghold - as a part of it, could easily end up in the PLP column come election day.

In about 40 at times exhilarating days we will see how accurate my prognostications were. Meanwhile, I'll make one pledge though and that is, if the PLP does lose the election I will voluntarily leave the country... at least for a few days!

Finally, I would like to commend the Bermuda Health Foundation in organising a tribute to one of Bermuda's enduring political figures, Reginald Burrows MP. A quiet, dignified and unassuming man, Reg, as he is affectionately known to young and old, is due to be honoured for his more than four decades of service to his Southampton community and his country.

He will also be the recipient of the first ever Salute to Service Award on Saturday night at the Fairmont Southampton.