In 14 days, Bermuda will know whether or not it has a new leader.

By then, somewhere around 150 and 200 Progressive Labour Party parliamentarians and delegates from the party's branches will have decided whether to stick with Alex Scott as Leader and Premier or whether to go with Ewart Brown, who officially launched his challenge yesterday.

There remains the possibility that someone else may yet enter the race, with Finance Minister Paula Cox seen as the most likely to step in should Mr. Scott falter or if a compromise candidate is needed.

This is a difficult race to call. Unlike the United Bermuda Party, whose MPs alone select their leader, the decision in the PLP very much lies with the delegates who outnumber the 27 members of the parliamentary group by a factor of six or seven.

Made up primarily of long time party loyalists, they are a different breed from the legislators and have shown time and again that they are willing to go in a different direction. That was abundantly clear in 1996 when Mr. Scott was said to have a majority of MPs behind him but Dame Jennifer Smith had a majority of delegates, and it was clear in 2003 that Dr. Brown had at least half the MPs, but shallow support on the floor.

This election may be different. Dr. Brown has had time in office and time to build support. But for want of a better word, the machine built by Dame Lois Browne Evans and the late Frederick Wade and inherited by Dame Jennifer Smith still has plenty of weight.

The delegates will have to decide who is best suited to lead the party, and who best embodies its slightly tattered ideals. But more importantly, parties are built and designed to win and to hold power, and the delegates will have to decide who is better able to lead them to election victory.

Dr. Brown's problem is that he engenders as many negative emotions as he does positive ones. There are some in the PLP who believe he is the only MP with the talent and vision to take the PLP forward. But there are as many who will never forgive him for the 2003 coup.

Dr. Brown has also remained vague about his ideas for the country and the party and he will need to put flesh on them. That's likely to come through a rolling series of announcements, but Dr. Brown will also have to expect greater scrutiny both of those plans and of his record than he has experienced up to now.

He will also face criticism within for being a divisive force. All PLP members are familiar with "united we stand, divided we fall" and a challenge against a sitting leader inevitably splits and weakens a party.

Mr. Scott needs to show that he has both the vision and the stamina to lead the party. The mere fact that he will lose one of his best Cabinet Ministers will hurt and the appointment of Sen. David Burch, who continues to hold the Works and Housing portfolio, can only be temporary. It does demonstrate the lack of talent on the PLP benches, however.

Ms Cox remains the wild card. Respected by all wings of the party and with broad appeal to the general electorate, she would be the United Bermuda Party's worst nightmare and is the only Minister who has the same reputation for effectiveness that he does, only without the naked ambition.

It is going to be an interesting two weeks.