Former Premier Sir John Swan?s claims that the United Bermuda Party?s leadership needs to change before it can win a General Election cannot have been a welcome Christmas present for current party leader Dr. Grant Gibbons.

Still, Sir John is not alone in questioning whether Dr. Gibbons can lead the UBP to election victory.

That?s because there are two ways of looking at the UBP?s performance since its 1998 General Election defeat.

The first is that plenty of people were ready to write off the UBP entirely after 1998, and a two-term majority for the Progressive Labour Party seemed to be a given.

Yet, far from being wiped out in the last election, the UBP recovered and gave the PLP such a scare that it removed its sitting Premier. The Opposition came within 150 votes or so of tying the PLP for seats in the House of Assembly, and within eight votes of unseating then-Premier Jennifer Smith. It also increased its proportion of the national vote and its proportion of seats in the House, while the PLP saw both fall.

That is a formidable achievement by any measure and much of the credit must go to Dr. Gibbons for reshaping the UBP, finding new and more diverse candidates and overseeing a much better campaign than the PLP did.

The second view of the UBP?s performance is less sunny. Even if all of the above is accepted, it can be argued, as Sir John and others have, that the PLP?s own disarray and miserable campaign handed the UBP a golden opportunity to win the election.

And so the question of whether the UBP can win under its current leadership must be asked.

What the UBP?s MPs must decide, and soon, because it is more than likely that Premier Alex Scott will want to call an early election to get his own mandate, is whether the 2003 election created a foundation for the UBP to win the next poll or if it is time to go back to the drawing board.

Certainly, the UBP has plenty of momentum going forward. Contrary to Sir John?s remarks, the UBP is more diverse today than it has been in decades and some of its new MPs show signs of becoming strong Parliamentarians, adding to an already formidable front bench.

At the same time, the PLP has also recovered much of its confidence under Mr. Scott?s leadership and is likely to be a more formidable adversary in a new election campaign.

In the end, the question must be asked whether the Bermudian community is prepared to elect a leader whose skin colour is different than the majority.

Dr. Gibbons may not overflow with charisma, but he is honest, highly competent and no one could now question his dedication to the Island and its people.

Those strengths will become more important over the next few months because the Bermuda Housing Corporation and Berkeley scandals have not gone away.

The other issue for the UBP is: If not Dr. Gibbons, then whom? The UBP has tried to make the case, and rightly so, that it should elect the best candidate, regardless of race.

If the UBP?s MPs do not believe that Dr. Gibbons is the best man for the job, then they should decide quickly and make a change.

But if they do, and that seems to be the case, then they should get behind him, continue to build a philosophy and policy plan that appeals to the majority of Bermudians, continue to oppose the Government when it is merited and prepare for the next General Election.