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Reply to the Budget

New Shadow Finance Minister E.T. (Bob) Richards described himself during his Budget Reply on Friday as having been a voice in the wilderness in the last few years when decrying the risks of an overheated economy.

Mr. Richards should have some more company now as he succeeded on Friday in showing how Bermuda's inflationary approach and easy approach to credit has been hurting the most vulnerable people in the economy.

That's not an easy argument to make, and it is harder to make in accessible terms, but Mr. Richards, by and large, succeeded.

To be sure, his Reply was long, and it is not clear that many people will have listened to it in full or read it all the way through to the end.

That's a shame, because he built a good case against the Government's handling of the economy and may have laid the foundations for an economic policy for the United Bermuda Party that is different from the PLP's – and is appealing as well.

That's what a Shadow Finance Minister needs to do, and it is not easy when the economy appears to be as buoyant as it is today and when many people are doing well.

But many people does not mean all, and Mr. Richards showed that people in lower income brackets are struggling. He was helped, and was not shy to point it out, that many civil servants are in that position, and that's why they marched on Parliament on the day of the Throne Speech and have since issued their first strike notice in 30 years.

At any rate, Mr. Richards rightly pointed out where things have been going wrong in the Bermuda economy.

Bermuda's inflation rate has been rising at a higher rate than its trading partners, in part because banks have been lending US dollars for loans and mortgages and because Government has been spending faster than the inflation rate as well.

That has put an excess of money into the economy and has driven prices for real estate up dramatically, putting homes out of reach for the average home buyer.

This is all right for the rich and for the contractors and for business owners who can get credit on easy terms, Mr. Richards noted.

But it's bad news for most other people.

Mr. Richards called on Finance Minister Paula Cox to review the banks' lending policies and then to release a plan to rein in loose credit. That's easier said than done given that Bermuda lacks a central bank like the US Federal Reserve to control interest rates and needs to take care when dictating rates to private entities like the banks. But some gentle persuasion for the good of the Island would not go amiss.

Mr. Richards also accused Ms Cox of producing "another" inflationary budget and it is true that Government current account spending is again running ahead of the inflation rate.

Ms Cox has said this is likely to be the last time this happened, but with the untold expense of Future Care still to come, one wonders how that can be. Opposition parties also face the sometimes difficult task of determining what Government programmes they can support and which they can oppose.

If you oppose everything, you rightly risk the problem of being overly and unfairly negative. If you are too friendly, then the public will wonder how you differ from the Government.

Mr. Richards seemed to get it pretty much right. He argued that the Government has allowed the economy to grow too fast and he was able to point out, through his "reality checks", where Government has either overspent, or has not followed through on its promises.

But he also showed where the UBP supports the PLP, for example on economic empowerment zones and education reform. In many of these cases, these statements of support were qualified, but that is hardly surprising.

Ms Cox, has with some reason, been given credit for much of Bermuda's economic success over the last few years.

But Bermuda has two competing visions of where the Island can go from here, and that's a good thing.