Barring a major mistake or an unexpected event, Paula Cox will be the Premier of Bermuda in around three weeks time, according to the latest Royal Gazette survey.

Ms Cox, the Deputy Premier and Finance Minister, has been the front-runner for the job within the Progressive Labour Party since Premier Dr. Ewart Brown said he would be stepping down. But for a time, it could not be said with the same certainty that she was the public's choice. She seemed vulnerable because of the economic downturn, an unpopular Budget and her "cog in the wheel remark". The poll, conducted last week, suggests that the public as a whole and PLP supporters in particular, have dismissed those worries.

Former Cabinet Minister Terry Lister's attempts to pin the problems of the economy on her does not seem to have gained traction, while Dale Butler, another former Cabinet Minister, has not capitalised on his formidable appeal to the Country at large. To be sure, that's partly because Ms Cox does have strengths, including loyalty to the party and a reputation for consensus building.

Journalists and political observers would prefer a knock down fight and a down to the wire race, but it may well be that the Country would not and would prefer a smooth transition instead. As the front-runner, Ms Cox has also kept a reasonably low profile, which is in keeping with the front-runner's mantra; first, make no mistakes. Instead, Ms Cox has simply done her job, racking up Tax Information Exchange Agreements (TIEAs) and going before PLP branch meetings and other closed door meetings.

In that context, she has been helped too by Dr. Brown's long and very public goodbye. There's not a lot of room on stage for anyone else right now. In fact, that may be part of Ms Cox's appeal. Having a political leader who prefers a lower profile may be welcome.

And Ms Cox's soothing words on "lowering the volume" on race and other issues also seems to be welcomed. Indeed, after the often combative approach of Dr. Brown, a little soothing and comfort might be just the thing.

However, what the Country needs to be sure of is that Ms Cox's character is not all consensus, soothing words and lower volume.

A leader must have the strength to stand up to opponents (and colleagues) when necessary and to speak clearly and coherently on Bermuda's behalf. The same is true in terms of confronting the many issues that face the Island, starting with crime. Here a strong voice is needed to make it clear that the current bout of lawlessness is unacceptable. But Ms Cox's ability to work with others is critical because of the necessity of collaboration between the Government, the Police, the Governor and other agencies across the Island and abroad.

A similar approach is needed on the economy. The interests of Bermuda and Bermudians must be protected, but the occasional mixed messages that have been sent out to international business has to be replaced with a more collaborative approach. The survival of the economy depends on it. In education too, a combination of clear speaking – Bermuda must raise its quality of education – more consensus – it will take all of us to accomplish it – is needed. Much of the public supports the general direction of education reform under Minister El James. But what has been missing is buy-in from stakeholders, especially teachers.

Although Ms Cox is less popular than she was 12 months ago, in a few weeks time, barring a slip-up, she will have the goodwill to build a better Bermuda. But doing it will require that she balances conviction with consensus.