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BERMUDA | RSS PODCAST

Is the earth’s climate variable or changing ... or both?

The Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences research vessel. Photo By Priscilla Lange

In many fields of science, researchers are often caught at a crossroads between explaining their work accurately and doing so in a way that the public can understand and relate to.This is particularly true with climate change science as many aspects involve complex models and calculations, not to mention the controversial nature of the topic itself.Regardless of which side of the climate change debate you sit on, understanding the concepts involved is crucial to moving the discussion forward.One of the most frequent stumbling blocks is the connection between climate change and climate variability.Despite the similarity of these terms, they actually describe different characteristics that happen to be intimately connected components of the global climate system.In many regions of the world, measurements of climatic parameters — such as rainfall and temperature — are taken on a yearly (if not daily and monthly) basis.Over time, these measurements provide a fairly comprehensive picture of what is likely to happen in each region.For parameters like rainfall, scientists can average the measurements to obtain a yearly average (mean), allowing them to make statements about whether year-to-date rainfall is above/below average.This short-term deviation from the long-term mean is what is referred to by the term ‘climate variability.’Climate variability is most often the result of changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Climate change refers to shifts in climatic parameters over longer timescales, such as one or more decades, or even centuries.This can take the form of deviations in the long-term climatic averages, such as an observed increase in the average air temperature over the course of a few decades.Over Earth’s history, climate change has been caused by plate tectonics, volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar intensity — in addition to recent changes attributed to emissions from human activities.In the past, such long-term deviations have typically lasted for centuries and, at the same time, have resulted in shifts in climate variability on shorter timescales — daily, seasonally, annually, and even on decadal scales.This means that although climate variability has always been present, due to anthropogenic climate change, we are seeing more variability on different cycles: more frequent monsoons and heatwaves, more severe droughts, floods, etc.This and the overall shift to an increased global temperature cause stress on the sensitive environmental and ecological balance of our planet.