Not wanting to dedicate energy towards a rumour, I have had to rely on the presumption that The Royal Gazette would not publish a front-page story without some substance behind it. Real-time events nowadays are such that they should not need to invent or sensationalise headlines to sell papers.

So what is it regarding the purported One Bermuda Alliance leadership challenge? Is Craig Cannonier’s denial similar to David Burt’s original denial? The rule has always been that a Cabinet minister should be loyal to the Premier and not be sitting in Cabinet while planning to unseat their boss.

Well that’s the rule. But undermining the Premier’s seat has always been the shadowy undercurrent at play. It was so loud and clear from the inception of the OBA victory that Cannonier’s days at the top were numbered. Prominent supporters could hardly contain their speech concerning his leadership; their disdain was visceral.

He came in as a rookie parliamentarian, thrust into leadership of the country with no experience. It was obvious that the big decisions did not have his face on them and that he was given a desk to sit at, with a pen to sign off with, while others did the work.

Notwithstanding, it was the optics of something new that Cannonier provided the OBA, which gave it the surprise victory in December 2012. The fortune of the party was sealed at The Fairmont Southampton when he was selected over Bob Richards to lead the new party. Had Richards won, more than likely the OBA — seen then as nothing different from the United Bermuda Party — would have lost. Cannonier provided the veneer to authenticate what was to be seen as a new beginning.

Cannonier, as a new premier among seasoned parliamentary colleagues, must have felt like a kitten in a dog’s world. He must have needed to stand in front of a mirror each night and say, “I am the leader of the country” because, for God’s sake, few thought of him as such.

His deputy was always considered the leader in waiting. Idle hands are the Devil’s workshop and the moment he launched out to assert his own stamp on things, in cricket terms, he was caught behind.

Four years of training, including a prominent Cabinet post, should have seasoned the former rookie and provided the experience to understand the art of the game. I never saw it coming and often wondered what a resurgent OBA could look like — a Cannonier pitch is at least one plausible argument.

It will be difficult, if not impossible, for the OBA to reuse its old campaign mantra. It is no longer new and untested. Its identity has been established, and unfortunately, rebranded as the UBP/OBA. The Dunkley leadership will have to run on its record, but a Cannonier could claim, “let me finish a job I started before I was robbed of its completion”.

In such a case, the shift in leadership would have to be swift to demonstrate a difference brought by his leadership and direction, before any general election.

The Progressive Labour Party has already made its leadership change and has emboldened its electoral prospects — as indicated by recent polls. Burt would need continuously to deliver a clear and bold agenda, and the results would favour the PLP.

Dunkley appears as stately, but he cannot reverse the trajectory that his out-of-touch Cabinet has inflicted on the party.

Cannonier would need to be seen as more authoritative with the experience he has gained over the past four years. I don’t say that it is possible for him to pull off an election victory, but it may be the last bullet left to fire that has any hope of hitting the target.

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