The future of asbestos litigation, expected to top $200 billion and bankrupt all major defendants in the US, will be the first item on the agenda at the fifteenth International Reinsurance Congress organised by Hawksmere plc. in association with Pricewaterhouse Coopers to be held in Bermuda from October 10 to 12.

The Congress will focus on the risks faced by the reinsurance industry and the industry's response to those risks.

And an international panel of speakers, each of whom is a recognised expert in their chosen field, will address the risk issues faced by the industry as it looks forward to the opportunities offered by the 21st century whilst keeping a watchful eye open for the threats posed by the legacy of the 20th.

A study released by the California based RAND Institute for Civil Justice (ICJ) last week said that the number of US companies caught up in asbestos litigation has grown dramatically over the past ten years and all the major asbestos defendants are likely to be bankrupt within the next two years.

The study - which has been ongoing since the 1980's and details what is now the longest running mass tort litigation in US history - was prepared for meetings with the staff of the Senate Judiciary Committee and the House Judiciary Committee.

It offers preliminary answers to questions on the number of claims filed, compensation, litigation and more efficient and equitable strategies for resolving asbestos litigation.

The aim of the study was to address how the US deals with asbestos claims.

The findings are based largely on aggregate data available in published sources, interviews with participants in the litigation, including plaintiff and defence attorneys, court appointed neutrals and insurance company claims managers. The researchers say that although more than 500,000 claims have been filed and over $21 billion paid out, this may represent less than half of the claimants that will ultimately come forward.

The report also says that five major defendants spent more than $1 billion apiece on asbestos litigation before filing for bankruptcy.

The report also suggests that all of the major asbestos defendants are likely to be bankrupt within 24 months but said that before this happens there is a window of opportunity for reviewing and rethinking national asbestos strategy.

The study says that 41 firms have already filed in `Chapter 11' bankruptcy protection due to asbestos-related costs, but did not name the companies.

However, the study has shown that the number of asbestos-related bankruptcies has surged in the last 18 months and since January 1 2000, ten major asbestos defendants have filed in Chapter 11 including; Babcock & Wilcox, Pittsburgh Corning, Owens Corning, Armstrong World Industries, Burns & Roe, G-I Holdings, W.R. Grace, Washington Group International, US Gypsum and United States Mineral Products.

At a meeting of casualty actuaries in May 2001, analysts from Tillinghast-Towers Perrin estimated that insurers will ultimately bear about 61 percent of the costs of asbestos claims, divided roughly equally between US insurers (30 percent) and foreign insurers (31 percent) and the remaining 39 percent will fall to defendant corporations for uninsured losses. In June, the same analysts estimated the total ultimate costs to US Insurers, non US Insurers and defendant corporations (for uncovered losses) at $200 billion.

Because of its good fire-retardant capabilities, asbestos was widely used in manufacturing, construction and shipbuilding industries until the early 1970's. An estimated 27 million people in the US are believed to have been exposed to asbestos through their work. The material was later identified as the cause of the deadly cancer mesothelioma amongst others and the lung disease asbestosis.

Although the number of mesothelioma claims fell in the early 1990's they began to climb again in the mid 1990's and claims for nonmalignant ailments have continued to rise.

Other topics that will be examined at the congress include; managing CAT risks, underwriting technology risks, litigation risk, A&H spiral, brokers liability for servicing extended run off, insolvency strategies and the life cycle of risk in insurance.

Hawksmere is one of the UK's foremost training organisations who design and present more that 500 public seminars a year in the UK and internationally for professionals and executives in business and industry.

For more information about the congress, log on to www.hawksmere.co.uk/bermuda.