History supports market upswing
Miraculously, amidst the soot and debris, the United States equity markets reopen for full trading today; cynics and optimists alike, will be watching the signals and messages in investor mood and confidence closely.
Defiant, decisive, determined, Americans everywhere, are sending their own economic message to the world. Simply put, we grieve for the loss of our innocent people, but no one, terrorists or otherwise, will be allowed to destroy the fabric of and heart of America.
In a metaphoric rise from the ashes, investor patriotic fervour is enveloping the nation in a cloud of dramatic purpose. American investors are publicly stating, in words and in actions that they have no intention of selling out corporate America. In fact, they will step up to the plate on Monday morning, September 17, 2001 and place buy orders for stock.
There are so many compelling stories of this resonating resilience, not just in investor attitudes, but in the stoic belief of a nation united in one purpose, to show the world they are down but not out.
Less than 24 hours after this terrible tragedy, in a Harris poll taken amongst stunned US citizens, a staggering 99 percent of American investors stated that they will not be selling any of their investments. And while they expect market values to drop in the next few weeks, they do not plan to change their investing and spending habits.
In a headline titled 'We Are All In the Mood To Send a Message' on CBS.marketwatch.com, Larry Kramer, founder and CEO of CBS.marketwatch, describes this amazing phenomenon.
"Send a message. Buy stock".
Individual investors are initiating action, on one Internet message board after another: "Terrorists want us to crash. No Selling! Long USA!
Another investor stated, he could not in good conscience short his stock and profit off "betting against my nation" and while he may see losses short-term, he could still sleep at night.
One investor bluntly stated: "I will invest $2,500 on Monday morning, if I lose my money, I will consider it a gift to those who have died. If there is a profit, I will donate it to the Red Cross."
Calling it the " Great American Stock Revival", American Venture magazine suggests that every investor buy 100 shares of stock and hold.
Mutual fund managers are receiving the same message. Mutual fund investors are a significant presence in the stock market. Their record under fire is one of staying the course, partly because fund investors typically work with an advisor who can help them see the value of sticking with their long-term view. Mutual fund managers report few requests for redemptions; Morningstar, a mutual fund rating service, reports that calls to Fidelity, TRowe Price and others, report no evidence of panic redemptions, but in fact, investors are placing purchase orders. Even the battered Janus funds have only seen a five percent drop in their massive total asset volume.
One small fund the Monterey Mercury New World Biotechnology Fund has received less than five requests for redemption through late last Friday.
Investor sentiment and confidence is a fragile thing. It affects all markets. The individual investor here in Bermuda (or anywhere for that matter) should evaluate carefully and rationally whether anything has changed in terms of his/her goals, personal financial situation or time horizon.
If none of these factors have changed, be wary of blanket recommendations to sell out or re-allocate your portfolio. Unfortunately, in any period of vulnerability, there are those who will seek to take advantage, so trust your instincts. If you are not comfortable that this advice is being presented in your best interest, think again, then go to www.vanguard.com and read CEO John Brennan's eloquent message. Don't take my word for it; Go to any major financial website. They are all advising caution and avoiding hasty decisions to sell.
If you are really, really worried talk to an experienced financial advisor, someone who has been through major incidents before, and someone independent of your current advisor. There is no substitute for experience.
And forgetting fervour and patriotism (after all millions of investors don't live in the United States), when your own preservation is paramount and you do make the decision to sell your holdings, do it in small gradual increments. Reassess after each step.
In volatile markets, generally, individual investors aren't likely to get high priority when the market opens. By the time their trades are executed, stock prices may already have dropped significantly due to institutional trading; the big institutions are going to get their transactions done first.
An individual investor with an impressive $10 million portfolio does not carry the weight or size of institutional money managers, who routinely trade in billions.
The United States, its people and its financial markets have overcome many challenges in the past, world wars, assassinations, terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
No one knows what will happen short-term, but long-term- where most investors should focus - financial markets are not driven by emotion but by fundamental economic conditions.
There have been 13 historic, traumatic, national events since 1946. The S&P 500 had only three periods when the average closing price the month of the event was not exceeded later, within four months.
In six of those events, that is, almost 50 percent of the total, the stock market went up the very next month.
Only the 1987 crash and the 1956 Suez Canal crisis had markets that remained lower for over one year.
Many investors today have never experienced a bear market, let alone a global crisis.
It is well to remember that history supports a steady upward momentum in capital markets and view your investments accordingly.
Martha Harris Myron CPA CFP can be reached at her email on marthamyronnor- throck.bm
In line with the direct request to Financial Planning Association practitioner members everywhere from the FPA of the US Board of Directors, my financial planning assistance on a pro bono basis is available to those here in Bermuda, who may have been directly and tragically impacted by this event.
Please send me a confidential email describing your facts and circumstances to the address above.