What can we expect in the way of technological advances in the coming year? It is certainly still a Microsoft world for the business and home desk computer user. I hope you managed to hold off on buying a new computer with a Microsoft operating system, because at the end of January it will become outdated with the general introduction of Vista.

Microsoft has already rolled out the new operating system, which takes over from Windows XP, to business customers. It is the home users who are stuck in this no man's land between the old and new versions of the operating system.

To encourage computer users to buy computers with XP, most manufacturers are offering an "express" upgrade to Vista. The express upgrade is a cover for Microsoft's inability to release the system before the all-important holiday season.

In the end it is simply a way to get you to spend even more money. If you read the terms of the agreement, which covers "eligible" computers bought between October 26, 2006 and March 15, 2007, you will see it mentions unspecified fees and shipping costs. Ominously Acer also mentions: "You may need to update/reinstall the BIOS and/or some utilities and/or applications when upgrading the OS."

In other words: Wait! Better to get the full system already installed rather than go through the process of reinstalling Vista overtop of XP, plus dealing with the hassle of getting the upgrade. You may not want to upgrade at all if you own expensive programs that will not run on XP.

If you must get a computer now, get all the detailed information about the procedure, additional costs and other qualifications you may have to deal with in making the upgrade. At least you will know what kind of grief to expect.

By the way, Microsoft has also rolled out Office 2007 to business customers. A Microsoft developer in Bermuda has kindly sent me a review copy. Thanks to him I have the opportunity to put it through its paces in the coming weeks and will write a review in the new year.

What else can we expect in the way of technology? One of the key continuing trends driving technology is the increasing search by manufacturers and developers for an audience. There is so much multimedia content available and limited customer time.

The information age is overflowing... with information. The trick is to learn how to present and deliver the services, information and other content, while filtering out the content individual customers do not want. It is an increasing fragmented market in which mining niches can deliver rich rewards.

The customers that find those niches or adapt to changing preferences and technology are the ones that will survive. For example, attempting to target the bloggers may be a dead end right now. Analysts such as Gartner are predicting that the market will peak in 2007. The number of blogs will level out at about 100 million.

Gartner notes that 200 million people have already stopped writing their blogs. Still it is a sizeable market, and there is nothing in the runes that do not rule out a new burst of growth through developments in blogspace.

The growth market lies in the increasing development of a portable internet. By 2010, 60 per cent of the worldwide cellular population will be "trackable" via an emerging "follow-me Internet", Gartner predicts.

Local regulations have arisen to protect users' privacy, but growing demands for national safety and civil protection are relaxing some of the initial privacy limitations, allowing space for companies to do business. Let us hope they do so responsibly.

Gartner also predicts that by 2010, the average total cost of ownership of new personal computers will have fallen by 50 percent.

"The growing importance and focus on manageability, automation and reliability will provide a welcome means of differentiating PCs in a market that is increasingly commoditised," the technology analyst concludes. "Many of the manageability and support tools will be broadly available across multiple vendors. However, vendors that can leverage these tools further and can graduate from claims of 'goodness' to concrete examples of cost savings will have a market advantage." Gartner also predicts Vista will be the last major release of Microsoft Windows. The next generation of operating environments will be more modular and will be updated incrementally. Is this then the end of history? "The era of monolithic deployments of software releases is nearing an end," Gartner says. "Microsoft will be a visible player in this movement, and the result will be more-flexible updates to Windows and a new focus on quality overall." Thank goodness, I say.

Of more importance is this prediction: "By the end of 2007, 75 percent of enterprises will be infected with undetected, financially motivated, targeted malware that evaded their traditional perimeter and host defences." Watch out!

Another prediction you hope your business will not fulfil is the firm's forecast that through to 2011, enterprises will waste $100 billion buying the wrong networking technologies and services. "Enterprises are missing out on opportunities to build a network that would put them at a competitive advantage," says Gartner. "Instead, they follow outdated design practices and collectively will waste at least $100 billion in the next five years."

So there you are the opportunity and risk. It is the kind of world we seem to thrive in, without regard for the wasted wreckage along the way.

Have a good end of the year, and see you gadget clutchers with your new devices in 2007.

If you have any comments send them to Ahmed at elamin.ahmedgmail.com.