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TSX optimism for commodities

TORONTO (Reuters) - Despite steep summer declines and nagging fears over the health of the US economy, analysts say smoking-hot commodity prices may keep Canadian stocks charging ahead as the bull market enters its sixth year.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's key S&P/TSX composite index embarked on a month-long dive in mid-August, but has been able to recover most of its losses as resource shares prove resilient due to high prices for oil, gold and other commodities.

Resource companies make up about 45 percent of the index and analysts say that heavy weighting could help insulate the market from any economic slowdown in the United States.

"I'm not particularly optimistic about the US but I don't think the TSX is really about the US any more," said Jeff Rubin, chief economist and chief strategist, CIBC World Markets.

"What we're seeing is strong global growth that no longer seems to be dependent on the US and that's what allows the Canadian market, and indeed the broader Canadian economy, to have the measure of independence from the US that it didn't have in past cycles," Rubin said.

Investors are hoping that if there is a US downturn, demand for fuel from markets such as China and India will help keep oil prices high and investor interest in Canada's oil patch keen.

"It may be true that Canada sells all of its oil to the United States but the price that it does depends on what's happening in global oil markets," Rubin said.

Shares in oil and gas producers have climbed 11 percent since the mid-August slump, mirroring a big advance in crude oil prices, which hit a record high of $96.24 a barrel this past week.

Gold producers have done even better, soaring 4 percent over July's peak as the price of bullion surges. Gold broke the $800 mark for the first time since 1980 on Friday to move up to $807.70 an ounce.