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Nears equals far in the modern world

Consultant William Knoke, founder of the Harvard Capital Investment Group, has taken the trends of globalisation and communications technology and projected them to their logical extreme.

"We are entering the age of everything, everywhere,'' he said during a visit to Bermuda this week.

Mr. Knoke is one of that breed of consultants known as futurists -- in the same line as Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt -- who project trends into the future in an attempt to help businesses map out strategies for success. Unlike many other futurists however, Mr. Knoke is attempting to project trends into the near future, the next decade.

"I deal in reality,'' he said. As such, much of what's here today will remain in place, he adds. We will live in the same sort of houses, drive the same kind of cars and generally keep the same sort of social structure.

"We are not going to tear down the world in order to build the world,'' Mr.

Knoke said.

But he believes the current nationalistic society will eventually evolve into a "placeless society'', one in which state borders essentially become meaningless, or less meaningful. Society's structures have been built on the concept of place. People will now have to learn how to deal with living in one without such a base.

"Everything has evolved under the umbrella of place,'' he said. "The nation, the office, the factory, the school, the family are all predicated on the concept of place. Connector technologies have evolved to the state where place doesn't matter any more. Near equals far.'' Mr. Knoke, an investment banker who helps put together financing for high-technology companies in California, describes these trends in his first book Bold New World: The Essential Road Map to the 21st Century. His book was an outcome of his job, which involved projecting trends to determine their business prospects of startup high technology firms. He took this ability to synthesise trends further, to change on a global basis.

He said technology communication has allowed companies to decentralise, and to set up operations any where in the world. This means labour has become mobile, and so has capital. The easy movement of raw materials has also allowed countries like Japan -- those without a large supply of natural resources -- to survive and prosper.

People, commodities, information and service will cross borders with ease, as communications technology has taken distance out of the equation. Since the place where commodities are located will become less important, businesses will have more choice as to where to set up their operations. Companies will tend to move out of the congested urban areas to the less expensive rural areas or countries.

Globalisation means the business world will become a more competitive place.

Product companies will have to learn how to compete by marrying better services with their provision of a commodity. Service companies will have to reach higher to provide what he calls "hyperservice''.

Communications technology has allowed companies to decentralise their operations. Outsourcing will become a much more prevalent trend as companies hire other companies to do some of the work.

Due to the increased ability to communicate in the age when information is instantly available, the role of the middleman will tend to be cut out of the business equation.

The rise of connector technologies is good news for smaller economies like Bermuda, he said. They will become part of the global economy, able to compete with the bigger nations.

"Bermuda is in the mainstream,'' Mr. Knoke said. "It used to be an island.

As these connector technologies kick in it will become part of the global world.'' But the darker side of the equation in a connected world is the ease with which companies will now be able to relocate from one place to the next.

Companies could relocate overnight if they felt another place was better for their businesses.

The new technologies is also widening the gap between those who have it and those who don't, both with in society and between societies. Mr. Knoke predicts this trend will lead to breakdowns within a society and increased terrorism on a global scale.

"We have built a technological wall,'' he said. "Society will break down on that issue. There will be more civil unrest. Technology favours the terrorist.

Because of technology one person can create a lot of damage. Terrorism will be taken to a higher level.'' NO BOUNDARIES -- William Knoke