With the process of Constitutional reform now in full swing, few observers can say with absolute certainty whether a new electoral mechanism will be in place in time for the next Election due to take place no later than November 9, 2003.

There is a fair amount of confidence.

"I should certainly hope so,'' said Dame Lois Browne Evans. "Why would we go through all this if we have to go back to single seat constituencies?'' The completion of the Census and what happens after the Boundaries Commission presents its proposals for re-drawing the electoral boundaries will affect the process.

But first the Constitution has to be amended giving the Boundaries Commission the power to re-draw seats.

Members then have to be selected. And according to the Boundaries Commission Act, the Commission has to meet by June next year. The Commission will consist of two UBP members, two from the PLP, a judicial member and a chairman. Once the Commission completes its report it will be tabled and debated in the House before being sent to Whitehall.

Attorney General Dame Lois Browne Evans told The Royal Gazette that the first step -- amending the Constitution via an Order in Council -- should be relatively quick and easy. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office team on the island this week for constitutional talks are recommending a two stage approach to Constitutional reform -- beginning with the Boundaries Commission amendment. The Privy Council, which meets monthly, will enact the Order in Council once the Foreign Office accepts the proposal.

The Commission will have to take into account the latest Census, said the Attorney General. "The best thing is to have it done just after you have a census,'' she said. And once the report is in, then the House debate will take place. "Obviously you wouldn't set the date while you're in the midst of Constitutional talks.'' Chief Statistician Janet Bradshaw said last month that the final census report won't be ready until July 2002 -- after the deadline for the Boundaries Commission to meet -- but she said an executive summary should be ready by the end of February next year.

However, Deputy Governor Tim Gurney disagreed with Dame Lois' view that the Census was a prerequisite for the Boundaries Commission' work. Emphasising that this was his personal opinion, he said that he did not think the Census was that "crucial''. He said a Census was, by nature, inaccurate as soon as was completed. "People die and turn 18 everyday,'' Mr. Gurney said. "It can never be precise. This isn't exact science -- this is best efforts. Logically it could not be that crucial because as soon as its done it's out of date.'' When will fight for seats start? But there is precedent in Bermuda's history for a Boundaries Commission to request a "mini-Census'' if the last Census has not been conducted for a while.

Senator Calvin Smith was confident that given modern technology, the Census data will be ready in time for the Boundaries Commission.

"I am sure by the summer recess all the information needed for the Boundaries Commission will be done,'' said Sen. Smith. "I will eat my head if it's not.

It will be done. I have no doubt about that.'' He is not so certain about how the Commission will come up with the number of seats to be presented to the electorate.

"So many things depend on stuff that's not coming out of the Census,'' he said.

Deciding among the various options, the Constitution stipulates a minimum of seven and no more than 12 Cabinet seats, for example -- would undoubtedly mean longer deliberations for the Commission. And he said that no matter what recommendation the Commission makes as to the number of seats, the Island's political parties will be in for a period of in-fighting. "Seats will be in jeopardy,'' said Sen. Smith. "The number is going to cause a lot of disruption in both political parties.'' That could mean a protracted debate in the House of Assembly, before being sent to London for final approval and another Order in Council giving effect to the Commission's recommendations.

That the FCO team has left open the possibility of a referendum or a Constitutional Conference, something insisted upon by the UBP, throws some more uncertainty into the timetable.

Mr. Gurney added: "A referendum, as (FCO deputy legal advisor) Ian Hendry said, is neither ruled in or out. It will be a lot clearer when we get the report from the Boundaries Commission. When we know what the figures are, then we'll know whether we should have a Constitutional Conference or a referendum or whatever.'' Dame Lois said she expected "nothing startling to happen'' before the end of the year, adding: "We know that everyone knows when the next Election is held. And everyone will act accordingly.''