business leaders remain guarded about the state of commerce in Bermuda.

Government statistics released this week show total retail sales jumping 8.2 percent in March compared to the same month last year. The jump, which was largely fuelled by Easter shopping, pumped $37.3 million through the economy.

The greatest increases in sales activities were in liquor products (22.7 percent over last year) and in the motor vehicle-service station sector, which saw sales rise 17.8 percent.

The most unexpected development was the report by auto dealers of a continued rise in the demand for new cars.

"I think a lot of people deferred the purchase of a car during the depths of the recession,'' said a Finance Ministry spokesman.

"A lot of (the activity) also has to do with the secondary market,'' in which people buy second-hand cars of those who are buying new ones.

While the increase in car sales resulted from real demand, the jump in liquor sales was attributed to the increase in the alcohol import duty announced in the February budget.

"The sharp rise in liquor sales partly reflected (budget-related) price increases,'' the Statistics Department said.

Among general retail stores, gross revenue flows for a variety of store types increased 4.3 percent over the same month last year. Some shops reported doing even brisker business.

"Our increase was dramatically higher than (the overall rise of 8.2 percent),'' said Mr. Tommy Dickinson, owner of Astwood-Dickinson jewellers.

Despite March's strong showing, however, reaction was slightly more guarded when it came to the larger picture.

"I think you will see a levelling off in April,'' said Mr. Robert Rego, vice-president of the Bermuda Chamber of Commerce.

"(The strong March numbers) can be directly attributed to Easter sales,'' which came a month earlier this year.

The Finance Ministry spokesman agreed: "It would really depend on what local expenditures were in April. To be honest and to be fair, you would have to see April and March together.'' Indeed, the overall seasonal figures have been less than inspiring. The estimated total value of all retail sales for the first quarter of this year, for example, was $98 million, a "nominal increase'' over the same period last year.

"April was a very soft month,'' Mr. Dickinson admitted.

Nonetheless, retailers do have some reasons to be hopeful. According to the Statistics Department, residents returning from trips abroad declared $1.36 million worth of overseas purchases during March, a decline of 3.5 percent over the same month in 1993.

"Everyone else is optimistic we'll have a positive year,'' said Mr. Rego. "I think in May you might see some movement that reflects (increased) consumer confidence.''