The list of disasters which threaten businesses is lengthy -- hurricane, flooding, fire, terrorism, computer hardware or software failure, even simple vandalism or theft.

The key, according to Richard Bush, managing director of Guernsey-based disaster recovery consulting company MSD International Ltd., is to zero in on one possibility.

"The worst case scenario, in my view, is one of denial of access to your normal premises,'' he said.

"If you plan for this eventuality, most of the individual threats can be addressed as either examples of, or subsets of, access denial.'' Mr. Bush, who spoke yesterday at the Hamilton Rotary Club luncheon, held for the first time at Pier Six, has had positions with the UK Atomic Energy Authority and British Aerospace. He formed MSD three years ago. Currently, he is working with the Bank of Bermuda on its business continuity plan.

An emergency becomes a disaster if business operations are interrupted for 24 hours and will result in a financial or reputation loss, he said.

Most companies that suffer a disaster and have failed to put a proper plan in place are finished, he said.

From UK statistics, companies without an effective recovery plan stand a 70 percent chance of going out of business within 18 months and an 80 percent chance within two years while statistics derived from US sources suggest a 93 percent probability of going out of business within five years, he said.

"That's close enough to certainty to get my attention.'' Companies often say "it won't happen to us'' or "it costs money '' or it "doesn't bring in business.'' To these, Mr. Bush said, it might cost money, as does an insurance policy, and it is quite wrong to say that a business recovery plan does not bring in business.

"In an increasingly enlightened business environment, a business recovery plan can be used as an instrument of competitive advantage, by enhancing customer confidence and goodwill.

"It will also serve not only to save the lives of your staff but also protect staff morale and staff loyalty,'' he said.

Steps to prepare for how to keep the business operating in the wake of a disaster include, storage of vital records off-site as well as a fully equipped recovery site available on short notice.

A successful disaster recovery plan also involves full staff involvement, especially top management, budgeting and full documentation. The plan must be up to date and tested regularly.