Fed likely to cut interest rates
Federal Reserve meeting, a growing number of analysts believe Alan Greenspan and Co. may offer the weak US economy a stiff dose of medicine in the form of a 75-basis-point interest-rate cut.
Expectations of a three-quarters of a percentage point move are far from unanimous -- a Reuters poll showed that as of Monday, 13 of the top 25 Wall Street bond firms forecast a cut that size, while 12 thought a half-point move was more likely.
But the 75-basis-point camp has gained followers in recent days, including several former Fed officials.
"The odds of a 75 basis-point move are somewhat better than 50-50,'' former Fed governor Lyle Gramley said. "The Fed hasn't gotten much traction out of the monetary policy actions it has taken so far.'' Helping to reinforce the case for stronger action are comments Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan made last month in which he eschewed the interest-rate gradualism that had been the central bank's trademark in the past.
"Old economic policy must indeed adjust itself for the changing timeframe in which the economy itself is moving,'' Greenspan told lawmakers on February 28.
The Fed chief said "adjustments'' in the economy, such as pullbacks by businesses in response to weaker demand, appear to happen more quickly in the Information Age, warranting a faster-paced interest-rate policy.
"Because the advanced supply-chain management and flexible manufacturing technologies may have quickened the pace of adjustment...the Federal Reserve has seen the need to respond more aggressively than had been our wont in earlier decades,'' Greenspan said.
The Greenspan-led Fed's signature style was quarter-point moves, or occasionally half a point, which were often preceded by weeks -- or even months -- of comments by Fed officials setting the stage for them.
Although Greenspan made the February comments as a way of explaining the two rapid-fire half-point cuts the Fed made in January, many analysts said they could indicate a willingness to step up the pace in future moves.
"It's striking how quickly the economy seems to have downshifted,'' said Princeton University economist Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman.
Fed officials will gather at 10 a.m. Bermuda time today for what is sure to be a lively discussion of the economy and interest rates. It is expected to announce its decision at 3.15 p.m.
Investors in financial-market futures contracts pegged the odds of a cut of three-quarters of a point at around 64 percent. The key federal funds rate -- charged for overnight lending between banks -- now stands at 5.5 percent.
If the Fed cuts that rate to 4.75 percent, it would mark the sharpest single-step reduction since it cut the discount rate by a full percentage point in December 1991.
That was after the official end to the 1990-91 recession but the economy was still in a severe credit crunch.
The comparison with the discount rate move is relevant because during the early 1990s, this rate rather than the funds rate was the Fed's most visible tool for monetary policy.
Asked his prediction for the outcome of the Fed meeting, Princeton's Blinder said he didn't know but added: "If I had my druthers I would do the bigger cut.'' Fed alumnus Gramley, who is now a consulting economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, agreed with that advice and said he hoped the Fed would take it.
The Fed will have a complex picture to consider today. Consumer sentiment has plunged sharply in recent months but had a slight rebound in the latest University of Michigan survey.
The job market, by most indications, remains tight with the unemployment rate a low 4.2 percent.