According to a new study from catastrophe risk modelling firm AIR Worldwide Corporation, the US Gulf Coast is likely to experience more landfalls of tropical storms and weak hurricanes while the Southeast is likely to see more storms of hurricane and major hurricane strength during years of warmer than average ocean conditions, writes Tania Theriault.

AIR released their research last Thursday as a white paper to be published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

"AIR Worldwide provides two views of US hurricane risk in the form of alternative catalogues of simulated storms for its US hurricane model," said AIR director of research Dr. Peter S. Daily in a press release.

"The standard catalogue reflects hurricane risk under average climate conditions, while the Warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) catalogue reflects hurricane risk under warmer than average ocean conditions."

AIR said the SST catalog developed is offered as a "supplement to rather than a replacement for", its standard catalog of Atlantic hurricane activity.

"In providing two catalogs instead of one, AIR is promoting the use of multiple views of risk, or what is often referred to as an 'ensemble approach'," the press release said.

Dr. Dailey added: "Findings from research undertaken by AIR scientists indicate that during the years in which SSTs are warmer than the long-term average, the US Gulf and East Coasts experience more frequent tropical cyclone landfalls. The finding further indicate that tropical cyclone intensity at landfall is influenced by ocean conditions and that the effect varies by coastal region."

While the study was able to establish patterns for the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, AIR noted: "In the Northeast, the relationship between warm SSTs and hurricane landfalls is too weak to draw any firm conclusions."