Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. announced yesterday that total losses arising from the ongoing BP oil spill are unlikely to exceed $25 million.

In a statement, the Bermuda-based re/insurer said it had "evaluated a range of scenarios", most of which projected losses "substantially less" than that figure.

Aspen is one of only a handful of Bermuda companies to provide loss estimates arising from the spill – which has leaked millions of gallons of crude oil in to the Gulf of Mexico since April 22.

They include hardest-hit Swiss Re, which has estimated that net losses could reach $200 million.

Other reinsurers to have issued guidance are PartnerRe (up to $70 million) Validus (up to $45 million), XL Capital (up to $30 million) and Montpelier Re (about $20 million).

Thus far, projected losses across the industry have totalled about $611 million.

A report issued last week by the Moody's rating agency said some prominent Bermuda insurers have not released estimates, which indicates they expect their exposure to come in under the SEC's mandatory reporting threshold of roughly $25 million. Estimates for total insured losses range from $1.4 billion and $3.5 billion.

Stephen Catlin, chief executive officer of Bermuda-based Catlin Group Ltd., told an industry forum last week that insurers "got lucky" in the aftermath of the disaster. Analysts have credited the mitigated exposure of many commercial insurers to BP's self-insurance policy through its Guernsey-based captive Juniper Insurance Ltd. The accident is set to be the biggest loss in the energy sector since a similar incident in 1988 – when the Piper Alpha rig exploded in the North Sea.

Claims resulting from that spill totalled roughly $3.4 million. Though insured losses from the current spill will likely exceed that, it would still be only fractional compared to the cost borne by the industry after hurricane Katrina ($41 billion).

Despite reduced losses, the Moody's report found evidence insurers have hiked premiums by 50 percent for deepwater rigs in response to the spill.

Claims from the disaster are expected to rise as the leaked oil threatens businesses along the coastline of at least four US states.

There are also fears that nature could compound this man-made disaster, with a major hurricane capable of washing yet more oil ashore.