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Barclays Wealth expert sees summer of market volatility

The financial industry may have contributed significantly to the economic crisis but despite the inherent risks and problems associated with it there are also a number of opportunities to be had within the capital markets in the future.

That is the view of Kevin Gardiner, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth, who gave a presentation on 'Capital markets after a Tumultuous Decade' at the Bermuda Captive Conference held at the Fairmont Southampton yesterday.

Mr. Gardiner outlined the causes of the 2008/09 crisis, referring to "a richness of embarrassments" driven by a series of mitigating factors including financial complexity, opacity, interdependence, leverage and US consumer behaviour prior to the event.

He added that the global economy was stabilising and would eventually return to "business as usual".

"The financial sector is inextricably bound up by this episode and maybe contributed a lot of the economic damage that went with it," he said.

"But at no point is the global economy a house of cards that is going to collapse around our ears."

Mr. Gardiner said that if the damage suffered by the banks during the crisis could be repaired to some extent or stemmed there was no reason why the non-banking industries could get back to working properly again.

He acknowledged the potential risks linked to capital markets, but they were countered by the opportunities currently on offer and which would become available in the future.

"I think that as time passes and the realisation becomes that the US economy is not going into reverse, people may start to focus again on opportunities out there and they will tend to be in the corporate sector," he said.

"There is no need to rush to buy risky assets because this volatility does not feel it is going to go away over the summer months, but if you have the appetite for volatility and you have the long-term perspective that there are some opportunities out there."

He continued: "There are problems out there, there are risks and there are also opportunities out there.

"The problem I can see in the next few weeks in the markets is that we are so high right now that it has to come down, but I think a double dip recession is unlikely to happen."