Bermuda's current account surplus halves in three years
Bermuda's annual current account surplus has fallen by half in the space of three years.
The figure, which represents the balance of the economic transactions between Bermuda residents and companies and overseas parties, shows how the Island's international economic activity has slowed during the global downturn.
The Department of Statistics yesterday announced that Bermuda's current account surplus was $626 million in 2009 — which represents a fall of around $300 million for each of the past two years. Last year's surplus is exactly half of the $1.252 billion recorded in 2006.
The fourth-quarter surplus from last year was $183 million — up from $10 million in 2008, when the global economy had plunged into a credit crisis following the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September of that year.
The quarter's highlights included a one percent fall in the value of goods imported to the Island, despite year-on-year increases in the price of fuel and food. The value of goods imported from October through December fell one percent to $279 million. The value of fuel imports increased by $11.3 million, reflecting a 6.6 percent rise in fuel prices, while the value of food imports rose $4.5 million.
Over the full year, residents paid $1.067 billion for imported goods in 2009, $93 million less than in 2008.
The surplus generated by services transactions — including business services and travel — has fallen off steeply during the past three years.
In 2009, the services surplus was $351 million — $72 million, or 17 percent lower than 2008 and less than half the $730 million surplus recorded in 2006.
Investment income receipts plummeted to $311 million, from $803 million in 2008.
Shadow Finance Minister Bob Richards said the figure of falling services receipts was "of great concern", but he questioned the accuracy of the numbers.
"My concern is that the numbers could in reality be a lot worse than what they're telling us and that the balance could actually be negative," Mr. Richards said.
"The Balance of Payments is more important to Bermuda than it is to many countries. Our main industries rely on international trade — whether it's international business or tourism. What we spend internally is a direct consequence of what we get from abroad, so it's a critical set of statistics."
The United Bermuda Party MP is a former Bermuda Monetary Authority economist and general manager, whose work there in the late 1970s and early 1980s included compiling the BOP figures.
He questioned the "investment income" figures, which he said had fluctuated wildly during 2009. He questioned the size of the "balancing item" - a number listed at the bottom of the table of figures to make the current account balance with the capital and finance account, as it should. This number was frequently so large that it damaged the credibility of the rest of the figures, Mr. Richards said.
"In the fourth quarter of 2009, the balancing item was $459 million — that amounts to more than half the receipts for that quarter," Mr. Richards said. "In the first quarter of 2009, the balancing item was $844 million — more than the total receipts figure of $780 million.
"We always say that we're doing the best we can do — but I'm sure we can do better."
Valerie Robinson-James, director the Department of Statistics, said yesterday: "All statistical data produced by the Department is released to the public with a high level of confidence.
"A recent review of the Balance of Payments methodology by International Monetary Fund experts concluded that the current account surplus is accurately represented and comprehensively measured.
"In the financial account, while there are some gaps, the data series like any other financial series is continuously subject to on-going improvement."