Confidence holds
TORONTO (Reuters) - "Sell in May and go away" is an old adage that may not apply this year as the Toronto Stock Exchange looks to build on the seven-week rally that emerged from the wreckage of last year's vicious downturn.
Even as fears build that a new flu strain will escalate into a global pandemic — a potential stumbling block for investor confidence — there are clear signs that the market could hold its recent gains and even push higher this summer.
In recent weeks the global banking system appears to have been stabilising, while so-called "green shoots" of positive, or at least less negative, economic data have sprouted. The latest corporate results, albeit well down from last year, are managing to top deeply pessimistic forecasts.
"People are, in general, starting to look through the bottom here. They're starting to see things are not getting worse," said Lex Kerkovius, senior research analyst at McLean & Partners Wealth Management, in Calgary, Alberta. "The optimism is definitely shifting in the market."
Conventional wisdom suggests that stocks generally post their strongest performance from November to April. Investors can only hope that was not the case in 2008-09 as the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index dropped about seven percent during the November-April stretch.
Could the market actually lose more ground during the summer?
Most indications suggest otherwise. Over the past two months the TSX has headed higher, largely on the back of robust financial and energy sectors.
Toronto's main stock index ended the week down 0.6 percent, ending its recent run higher, as the first day of May brought healthy gains but but they weren't enough to offset early-week declines.