Is the US in, or not in a recession? While various financial pundits say so, everyone has a differing opinion, still! Mimicking the actions of tidal waves in large storms, recessional periods tend wax and wane for longer durations but with equal enthusiasm. Statistically, as taught in university courses, recessions (and recovery) are a normal component of broader business cycles.

But, that's the problem with dry theoretical material; it contains no factor for the human element experiences of economic downturns. However, just like any facet in personal life, changes in economies can be planned for. They even and often generate new opportunities.

Leisure economies compared. At 8.30 am, the temperature on a beleaguered regional bank billboard reads 95 hot degrees Fahrenheit; by noon, it will 110F°. Anything but a meadow (the English translation of Las Vegas), the dry gritty desert wind sucks the moisture out of man, animals, and vegetation in a natural relentless pursuit of mummification. It is so hot that you can fry an egg on the sidewalk. Playgrounds are carpeted because sand and macadam inflict burns on tender skin. The glare is so pronounced that polarised sunglasses are a necessary barrier, not a fashion statement, between keeping normal vision and having corneal sunburn.

Las Vegas — the city of real and imagine commodities where anything can be bought or sold for a price. Las Vegas, probably still the largest conference and gaming market in the world with 45 million guests per year, is under fiercer competition than ever before for a solid share of the consumer wallet.

Demographics taken as a whole show that the three pillars of this environment: business and real estate, conferences and entertainment, and gaming are now current trend consumer choices.

Gambling (and the revenues derived) as a pure participatory sport has dropped steadily for a few years. But that's the ultimate trick of this trade show — many choices. Customers today are looking for the whole experience. According to one insider (interviewed in the LV Sun Review) who has worked in gaming and its periphery all his life, gambling used to be the major reason to travel to Las Vegas. On a 2008, $2,000 budget, only seven to eight percent is allocated to gambling, while the rest is entertainment, retail therapy, access to sports / spectator viewing, and restaurant dining.

In spite of variances in land size and population, there are more similarities than differences between Bermuda and Las Vegas. All the elements of opportunity are there, that when taken as a whole, should contribute to a booming natural wave economy. The challenges for Las Vegas are:

• Oil and high cost to travel impediments.

• Tourist flow competition. Las Vegas continually reinvents itself, to counter consumer boredom, while bringing innovation into the experience.

• Service industry excellence is constantly sought. Customers know they can go elsewhere, in a heartbeat.

• Employer and employment union dichotomies.

• Immigrants and guest workers assembled from the far corners of the earth. Many foreign languages heard in the industry, though Spanish and English still predominate.

• Conference function abilities are still legendary. The Consumer Electronics Show in January each year alone generates 200,000 plus attendees.

• Entertainment value for dollar spent. There is recent blog criticism that LV has fallen short lately in this area.

• Housing foreclosures and accompanying redundancies

• The search for water. It is estimated LV will run out of water in less than two decades.

• Crime.

In other recessions at other times, the city has seen little impact, if at all, as it was thought that gambling was more resistant to recessions than many other industries that rely on discretionary dollars. In fact, the horrendous 9/11 events had a greater economic impact in recent memory.

It has always been stated that gamblers will gamble, impervious to their personal financial positions. What is being seen this time is that some consumers are showing restraint — particularly when having to choose between $4 a gallon gas and losing $100 on a slot machine.

Initial observations in a completely non-statistical manner showed that the number of oversize SUVs, giant Hummers, monster trucks still made up about 40 percent of all cars in hotel parking lots. Either these people are betting the farm here, running up their credit cards, or they can still afford it.

Airline costs, too, are becoming close to punitive as the industry compensates for fuel volatility. Airline canned soda now costs $2 per can — it used to be free. In the shopping malls, luggagiers have rows and rows of discounted large-mouthed suitcases lined up like soldiers waiting for duty. That inventory may not move anytime soon, as air travellers focus on jamming their belongings into overhead bins while every overweight bag is fine. Yet, the planes to LV are full even though costs have risen across the board, even for those so inclined to upgrade to first class who will be assessed $1900 per person. It used to be $150.

Las Vegas businesses and city / county government know exactly what is going on in its economy. Real numbers for all demographics are routinely reported by the Nevada State Gambling Control Board.

Further statistics on the state of Nevada's economy are generated on websites, such as that of Professor R. Keith Schwer, The Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas and in the daily press. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the money odds are that Las Vegas will continue to grow in the long-term, changing to suit customer choices and advantaging opportunities.

This is one in a series on recession planning: for your environment, for your job, and for your personal finances.

Martha Harris Myron CPA -NH1929, CFP® -67184 (US licences) TEP#203510 — Society of Trust and Estate Practitioners, UK. She is a Senior Wealth Manager at Argus Financial Limited with international experience, specializing in investment advisory services and comprehensive financial solutions for individual private clients and their families, business owners, endowments and trusts. DirectLine: 294 5709 Confidential e-mail can be directed to mmyron@argusfinancial.bm The article expresses the opinion of the author alone. Under no circumstances is the content of this article to be taken as specific individual investment advice, nor as a recommendation to buy/ sell any investment product.