Fidelity's Bolton predicts 'multi-year' bull market
LONDON (Bloomberg) — Sustainable economic growth and low interest rates worldwide will spur a "multi-year" bull market in equities, led by developing nations, said Fidelity International's Anthony Bolton.
"Low growth means low interest rates, and actually that's one of the best environments for stock-market investing," Bolton, president of investments at Fidelity International, which oversees about $141 billion, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. "Anything that can show growth in this low-growth environment is going to be bid up by investors. It's very pro the emerging-market world versus the developed world."
Policy makers in the US and Europe will keep interest rates low for another year even as Australia's central bank unexpectedly raised rates yesterday, Bolton said. He's "particularly optimistic" on Chinese stocks because the government will foster sustained economic growth without fuelling inflation.
Bolton's view contrasts with New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini and Elliott Wave International Inc.'s Robert Prechter, who have said shares are poised to retreat. Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Bill Gross predicted low economic growth will restrict annual stock returns to five percent, while Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said investors have been "irrationally exuberant" about an economic recovery.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has climbed 62 percent this year on expectations that developing nations will lead a rebound in the global economy from its worst recession since World War II. Emerging-market economies may grow six percent next year, compared with 1.8 percent growth in advanced nations, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
The MSCI emerging markets gauge climbed 1.5 percent as of 12.23 p.m. in London yesterday as higher commodity prices boosted earnings prospects for producers and HSBC said its purchasing managers' index for developing economies posted its biggest gain in more than a year.