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Global oil demand expected to rise

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global oil demand growth this year is expected to be slightly lower than previously forecast as weaker European consumption has overshadowed higher Asian, namely Chinese, demand, the US Energy Information Administration said yesterday.

In its latest forecast, the EIA said world petroleum consumption this year will rise by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, 10,000 bpd lower than its estimate last month, from 2009's total to 85.5 million bpd this year.

The 1.5 million bpd growth is the result of an expected recovery in the global economy, with world gross domestic product seen rising by three percent this year, the EIA said.

However, "EIA has revised its assessment for Asia upwards and Europe downwards for 2010 in response to preliminary first-quarter data for those regions," the agency said.

European oil demand was lowered by 170,000 bpd, while that for China, the fastest growing oil consumer, rose 90,000 bpd.

Fuel costs have risen in Europe as the euro has lost ground against the dollar due to concerns over Greece's debt, while greenback-denominated oil has risen in the first quarter.

The EIA's global oil demand estimate for 2010 was between last month's demand forecast from the International Energy Agency's of 86.57 million bpd and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' forecast of 85.24 million bpd.

The IEA's new monthly oil demand forecast will be released on April 13, followed by OPEC's on April 14.

On the global supply front, the EIA raised its forecast for non-OPEC crude oil production growth this year by 50,000 bpd from the agency's prior estimate.

The agency said said it now expected non-OPEC oil output to increase by 600,000 bpd this year to an average 50.88 million bpd.

The additional non-OPEC supplies was offset by the expected 90,000 bpd increase in Chinese oil demand this year.

That helped tighten the gap between global surplus oil supplies and demand by 40,000 bpd to just 160,000 bpd in 2010. ()

Total oil demand in the United States, the world's top energy consumer, will rise 150,000 bpd to 18.84 million bpd this year,

However, that growth was also revised down 50,000 bpd from its previous forecast as U.S. fuel prices this summer will sap gasoline demand, the EIA said.

US gasoline demand this summer is forecast to increase just 0.5 percent, or 45,000 bpd, to 9.164 million bpd compared with last summer, the EIA said.

"The boost to gasoline consumption from the economic recovery is being countered by higher gasoline prices compared with last year," the EIA said.

The retail price for gasoline this summer driving season, which runs from April through September, is expected to average $2.92 a gallon, up 48 cents from last summer.