brokerage, investment banking and asset managers, Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.

provided a group in Bermuda with his views on how the election results could affect the markets.

Michael Metz said that Wall Street would be unreasonably concerned if Congress is won by the Democrats and that only the Democrats will tackle thorny issues like the entitlements issue.

Money unjustifiably fears that Democrats will reverse the political and social clock. He argues that for the US, the New Deal is over, and there is a swing away from big government.

In Bermuda last week, Mr. Metz said, "It's a question of the speed with which we go toward this devolution. That's the real direction, though, the return of the power to the local level, and also limiting what ever social safety net we have in the US, which is the most meagre of any industrialised country.

"I won't be fearful of a revolution, a reversion back to so called "liberal ideas'', if the Democrats win. Unfortunately, I think the negative scenario will be if Dole wins, because he is committed to a tax cut, which is not needed. The problem with the economy is not that there is not enough demand.

There is plenty demand.

"If you have a tax cut, I feel highly confident the deficit will rise, the federal reserve will be more fearful of too rapid growth, and lean toward tightness, which will mean higher interest rates and a lower stock market.

"A Dole victory will not be bullish for the stock market. The markets would react for one day euphorically and then have second thoughts and decline. If the Democrats carry Congress, the markets will go down for a day and then go up with business as usual.

Oppenheimer hosted institutional and high-net-worth private investors at an exclusive dinner meeting at the Marriott Castle Harbour Hotel to hear first-hand views from Mr. Metz. Over dinner he spoke about the international scene and the US, including the stock market.

He said, "Internationally, we are on the verge of probably the strongest worldwide economy in a decade. For the first time since 1988, there will be synchronised worldwide expansion, with Japan, Germany and the rest of the Europe joining the US and the newly industrialised countries in a worldwide boomlet.

"In 1997, the US will be a relatively slow grower compared with the rest of the world. This will have strong implications for inflation, the demand for industrial commodities and for interest rates.

"The worldwide economy will be characterised by a very strong demand for things like metals, energy, forest products, chemicals, exports from the US.

This is going to result in commodity inflation.

"The 15 years of declining real prices for commodities is over. The disinflation story is now ending. This is very bullish for certain sectors of the economy, but not others.'' He said with interest rates rising, prices for these commodities -- sectors of the worldwide markets which have done poorly because of disinflation and pressure on prices -- will rise.

But he thinks that it will all be a surprise to the overall financial markets, which is one reason why it will result in higher interest rates.

People who are confidently believing that inflation won't be a problem, said Mr. Metz, will be proven wrong, and there could be a problem in the market, because of some very high stock valuations.

But many industrialised countries have fiscal problems, huge debts creating a monetary stimulus. Short term interest rates in Germany are at their lowest in 30 years. In Japan, short term rates are as low as they can go, and bonds are around three percent.

Because of their debt levels, the countries are not in a position to have a lot of deficit spending to push the economy, and a very accommodating and stimulating monetary policy will work to restart their economies.

Next year, he sees an export boom for the US. The US trade imbalance has been not because the US dollar is overpriced, but because the other economies have been so slow. But as they rise, you will see a rise in American exports, and a strong demand for the US dollar, which will continue to rise.

Mr. Metz is projecting a total flip next year, where exports will boom and imports will slow.

There will be more pressure on the German Deutschemark, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen, which will be declining currencies. The pressure will be deliberately applied by their own central banks.

Said Metz: "The Germans are determined to get the Deutschemark lower. That's the only way they can get that economy re-started. They have 11 and 12 percent unemployment, which is not coming down.

"In Austria, in the recent elections, there was a big win by the right wing.

You are getting the same kind of political pressures throughout Europe, namely high unemployment, and because of high real wages, uncompetitive wages in a rigid, structural labour force, these countries are really in a very difficult situation.

"They want to create jobs. They somehow have to get these economies going and they have to make their currency cheaper. And that's the whole purpose of the EMU (European Monetary Union), in my opinion.'' He doesn't agree with investors moving equity from US stocks to emerging markets, which are not attractive right now.

"The way you play the emerging markets is through US multinationals, which will benefit from rising affluence in these areas. And paradoxically, if you take a Thai or Malaysian bank, they are selling at much higher valuations than CitiCorp, which is an international bank.

"If you want natural resources, which I think are great play, you go to Canada, Australia or the US. You don't have to go to the emerging nations, where the markets are not transparent, not well regulated and not liquid.

"But I would go to Germany, which I think is the next great restructuring player to replace the US. They are finally addressing the labour problem. At the same time, the huge push in the American market came when short term rates were pushed down to three percent by the Fed in 1991.

"The same record is now being played in Germany. Personal rates are all the way down and will almost force individuals into the equity market.'' FACT FILE Michael Metz Oppenheimer & Co. chief investment strategist Michael Metz has been acknowledged by his peers as a "consummate financial professional''.

Career: Started as an analyst with Standard & Poor's in 1959 and went to Oppenheimer ten years later. Became chief investment strategist in 1990 and is primarily responsible for advising entrepreneurial retail and institutional investors and brokers on investment strategy and portfolio selection. Also manages investment partnerships for some of the firm's high net worth clients.

Oppenheimer has more than $40 billion in funds under management.

Investment Philosophy: Proponent of the value approach to investing, he applies many of the classic fundamentals of Graham and Dodd, sages of modern securities analysis, to his stock picking. He was one of the pioneers in the use of computers to assist in identifying undervalued equities.

Writings: Author of "Street Fighting at Wall and Broad'', a treatise on the psychology of investors. In 1989, authored "The Secret is Out'', which anticipated the decline in US commercial real estate values.

Saying: "The most important talent a strategist can possess is the ability to forget what he said three minutes ago.'' BILL CLINTON -- While campaigning yesterday.

Michael Metz