The impact of US President Barack Obama's plans to clamp down on businesses that move jobs overseas and tax dodgers hiding their money in offshore accounts will be felt further down the line, but the full effect will take some time yet to measure.

That is the view of James Sabo, president of Expatriate Tax Services LLC, who will be speaking at the Taxes and Trusts for US Citizens Living in Bermuda seminar held at the Chamber of Commerce boardroom on Monday between 12 p.m. and 1.30 p.m.

Mr. Sabo, who writes a US tax column for The Royal Gazette, said that until US Congress got hold of the proposals and fleshed them out, then it was just "a lot of conjecture".

"I think the problems are real, but whether Obama has the right solutions to it will be questionable," he said.

"There will be an effect, but it cannot be measured at the moment, and until anybody knows what is going to happen, then they are not going to make a move."

Mr. Sabo reckons most companies in Bermuda who were concerned about Obama and the Democrats winning taking power had put their exit strategies in place well before and already moved or redomiciled their operations to the likes of Switzerland or Ireland.

"It is probably the tip of the iceberg," he admitted. "We are certainly seeing fewer Americans that are doing their tax returns and I think that is probably the effect of the work permits where they have gone back to the US and they have not been replaced

"And if companies do not replace them then the likelihood is that their jobs are going to be outsourced."

He questioned the wisdom of Mr. Obama's plans, believing it might impact Bermuda captive insurance companies set up by US firms that paid their premiums, had those premiums deducted via their tax returns and subsequently reimbursed by the Internal Revenue Service in the past.

"It does not seem as if either Obama or his advisers had a good grasp of the ramifications of what they are doing," he said.

"And I do not know why he is calling some things which are legal loopholes."

Mr. Sabo said that the Bank of Bermuda, as part of the global HSBC group, could be under a significant amount of pressure as a result of these plans, but Butterfield Bank, which does not do as much business with the US, may not be under the same strains.

During his session on taxes and trusts, Mr. Sabo will cover the 2009 tax law changes already in effect and the new exit tax which affects your assets when you relinquish US citizenship or your Green Card.

He will also discuss the key rules for US tax and what is expected to happen in the next couple of months, before passing on to Dina Kapur Sanna, a partner at Day Pitney LLP, who will talk about US citizens who set up Bermuda trusts and the ramifications for them and those that become foreign beneficiaries of Bermuda trusts.