Log In

Reset Password

Loonie due for pullback

TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar looks set for a pullback after its recent charge to a six-month high as investor euphoria over upbeat data meets the hard reality of the global economy's ongoing problems.

But analysts said the currency's downside is likely to be limited by the recovery in energy prices and the reluctance so far of Canada's central bank to join its global peers in embracing unconventional monetary policy.

"A lot of these commodity currencies are probably going to be set up for some disappointment later this year and it's just a matter of whether it is relatively violent or moderate," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"Things look good now, but three months from now we are going to see this was the peak of the 'green shoot' backdrop. And the struggles of the global economy and global trade are going to be a little bit more persistent."

A Reuters poll published on May 6 showed Canada's currency is expected to fall to C$1.20 to the US dollar, or 83.33 US cents, in one month and slide further to C$1.23 in three months time..

On Friday, the currency hit C$1.1490 to the US dollar, or 87.03 US cents, its highest level since November 5. The move was spurred by a domestic employment report that surprised investors with news the economy created jobs, as well as a healthier US jobs report than forecast.

One of the best performing major currencies of 2007, the Canadian dollar charged above the greenback that year for the first time in more than three decades. It then slumped along with commodity prices when the global financial crisis took hold. It only recently started to regain its footing.

Fuelling the more recent rally has been a series of encouraging data and economic news. That has also helped drive Canadian stocks to a six-month high. But experts warn the global economy remains vulnerable and a rebound in demand for commodities and manufactured goods is still uncertain.