TSX climbs again
TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's currency rose slightly against the greenback yesterday, boosted by stronger equities, but investors largely avoided big bets ahead of key domestic and US jobs data that will give a glimpse into the health of the two economies.
If the reports out today show more jobs were shed than expected, traders could unload the Canadian dollar and flock to the US dollar given its status as a safe haven play. But a strong reading could boost the Canadian currency.
"It's just a matter of traders just kind of sitting on their hands waiting on the numbers for tomorrow," said Brendan McGrath, senior FX trader at Custom House, a currency services firm in British Columbia. "But we should see the US dollar catch a bid tomorrow if the US and Canadian employment data is worse than expected."
According to Mr. McGrath, negative surprises in the data could knock the Canadian dollar back down toward the two-week low of C$1.1103 that it hit on Wednesday. And he said a significant break above C$1.11 would put the next resistance level for the dollar around C$1.13.
The Canadian dollar closed at C$1.1033 to the US dollar, or 90.64 US cents, up from C$1.1048 to the US dollar, or 90.51 US cents, at Wednesday's close.
The currency received support from equity markets. The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 2.06 percent at 10,921.49, while the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.69 percent to 9,344.61.
The Canadian economy is expected to have shed 10,000 jobs in August, a smaller decline than July, while the unemployment rate is seen rising.
The Canadian numbers will be released just before the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show employers in August likely cut jobs by the least amount in a year, a sign of healing in the labour market.
Activity during the second half of today's session could reach a standstill as many traders may leave early for a head start on the long weekend.
Financial markets in Canada and the US will be closed Monday for Labour Day, which generally leads to lower liquidity and exaggerated swings.
Canadian bond prices ended slightly weaker as hints of stock market stability lessened the demand for more secure assets like government debt and ate away at a position of recent gains.
The slip in prices mirrored a similar move in the bigger US Treasury market as data there on the service sector and weekly jobless claims offered further suggestion that a modest economic recovery was under way.
The two-year bond dipped four Canadian cents to C$99.50 to yield 1.259 percent, while the 10-year bond shed 13 Canadian cents to C$103.32 to yield 3.346 percent.
The 30-year bond slipped 30 Canadian cents to C$118.95 to yield 3.878 percent.
Canadian bonds outperformed their US counterparts across much of the curve. The Canadian 30-year bond yield was about 28.7 basis points below its US counterpart, compared with 26.1 basis points on Wednesday.