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What does an Obama presidency mean for business in Bermuda?

Let there be no doubt that the overwhelming victory of President-elect Barack Obama on Tuesday, November 4 was an historic moment for the United States, for the entire world and, in particular, Bermuda.

For Americans, the victory was a strong signal that a campaign built on hope, optimism and a change in economic and foreign policies could transcend race and inspire millions of people to stand up and vote, many waiting for hours and others voting for the first time. In fact, there were 11 million more Americans who voted in this election than in the last presidential election. In addition, it was the second largest turnout in history, closely approaching the record turnout in the election of Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

For the world, the Obama victory sent another message. His victory was celebrated on the streets of Tokyo, London, Nairobi and even in the homes of Bermudians as a signal of a new and more thoughtful America, and it also was a sign that Americans — often accused of being insular — are truly aware of how they are perceived worldwide and that they wanted to change that perception. Americans, by and large, recognise that they are not isolated and on their own in the world. The election of Obama was validation of the idea that America is a part of a larger global community with an obligation to promote freedom, justice, liberty, prosperity and peace — and acceptance of this as well.

But, beyond these macro-level views of the United States and the world, what does an Obama administration really mean to Bermuda? President-elect Obama's immediate priorities are the US economy and regulation of the financial systems, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the imminent failure of the auto industry and energy policy. Overhauling the US tax code and looking into offshore centres, such as Bermuda, the Isle of Man, Guernsey, Jersey and others are not an immediate priority. Indeed, statements have been made that the new administration will leave the current tax situation as is in the coming year. While these statements impact specifically on income tax policy and the promised tax cuts made during the campaign, they are indicative that changing the tax code is not on President-elect Obama's top five to do list.

Nevertheless, there are many of us who are concerned that President-elect Obama will proceed with an aggressive change in tax policy, a more protectionist trade agenda and a "re-regulation" of the financial services industry, each of which could be harmful to Bermuda's economy. While those concerns, given the rhetoric in the recent Presidential and Congressional elections, may have some foundation, there is ample evidence to suggest that President-elect Obama may not be quite as strident and those fears may not be well-founded.

In fact, if there is one thing that became clear during this election cycle, it is that President-elect Obama is a very thoughtful, studied and reasoned person. He does not make rash decisions and is not prone to implementing or proposing rash and reactive policies.

One need only look at how he has handled the emergence of the economic crisis both during the campaign and since his election. He has listened to differing opinions, studied the issue on his own, asked his advisors for a recommendation and then proceeded with his plans. He has surrounded himself with some of the best minds on economic issues —people like Lawrence Summers, Paul Volcker, Warren Buffett and more. President-elect Obama has clearly articulated a point of view and advocated a policy position that is understandable to the American people. It includes financial support for failing and struggling financial institutions and other businesses, and an economic stimulus package which is likely to invest in meaningful long-term projects for America that includes infrastructure improvements and renewable energy and middle-class tax cuts to keep money in the hands of working people.

For Bermuda, all of these things — if positioned negatively — could be deemed threatening, particularly when it comes to a change in US tax policy. President-elect Obama, however, is a reasoned and rational person and so, if argued properly and positioned on its merits, it is probable that Bermuda can make a case that distinguishes and differentiates itself and its industries from others. Our role as vital conduit for capital in the insurance and reinsurance world is critically important. We insure and reinsure much of the catastrophe and other risks in America. Moreover, Bermuda has more than 400 years of history and support for the United States.

Therefore, while alarmist rhetoric and scare tactics about Bermuda's prosperity may be fashionable in some circles on our Island, I would suggest that what Bermudians need to do is embrace the change taking place some 650 miles to the west of our shores.

Bermuda has always been hospitable to international business. However, prudent decisions must be made to continue this relationship in a manner which is beneficial to all of us. Most of the issues pertaining to our economy, including labour, tax roll-over incentive, perceived xenophobia and others, can be resolved through our own decisions individually and collectively by ourselves and our own Government.

President-elect Obama's administration and its tax policy do not pose any immediate threat to our Island. Instead of being fearful, let us get to work as our own best advocates to America on our role in their economy and our importance as a long-time ally who wants nothing more than to see America grow and succeed through the transcendent force of the newly-elected American President, Barack Obama.

Cheryl Packwood is chief executive officer of the Bermuda International Business Association.