Rising sea level and more frequent high-intensity storms are two of the likely results of climate that will have a serious impact on the insurance industry.

That is the view of Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences director Tony Knap, who gave delegates at the World Insurance Forum yesterday the latest scientific assessment of climate change.

Mr. Knap said he sensed "climate fatigue" setting in after a cold winter on both sides of the Atlantic, the failure of the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit to make any meaningful progress and "Climategate" — the questioning of the reliability of past data on climate change after leaked e-mails suggested there had been some manipulation.

But serious action was needed urgently, otherwise the world was on tack for a rise in temperature of six degrees Celsius by the end of this century, a scenario that would spell disaster for the planet and for humanity.

He believed that solutions for tackling global warming would come from business, rather than governments, after the recent summit in Denmark failed to produce global agreement.

"Copenhagen failed, in my view," Dr. Knap said. "The general agreement was that we would have to limit the warming to two degrees Centigrade.

"But you have to realise that only three countries met their targets from Kyoto — Russia, because its economy collapsed; Germany, because a part of its economy collapsed; and the UK, where I hear the economy may be collapsing."

Speaking to an audience packed with leading insurance industry executives, Dr. Knap said one theory suggested that "over time, there may be a decrease in the number of storms overall, but a doubling in the number of category four and five hurricanes".

The industry is taking climate change very seriously and the Association of British Insurers recently stated that insurers would have to allocate twice as much risk capital for typhoons and hurricanes.

Although the climate change issue is often categorised as "global warming", Dr. Knap said it would be more accurate to describe the effect as "climate instability".

"It will become warmer in some places and cooler in others, drier in some places and wetter in others," he said.

The reason that the US and Europe had experienced such a cold winter was nothing to do with climate change, he said, but was rather caused by the "North Atlantic oscillation", a difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores.

Another factor to lead people to doubt the reality of climate change was "Climategate". Some scientists had apparently taken some short cuts, Dr. Knap said.

Some unrealistic theories had been voiced such as the notion that the Himalayan ice would melt by 2035 and that Africa would be unable to produce food by 2020, he added.

"The worst thing they did was to refuse to share data with their critics or even their colleagues," Dr. Knap said.

An expert on ocean science, Dr. Knap said climate change was evident in the changing state of the sea.

The acidity of the sea around Bermuda was rising, he said, probably because of increasing levels of absorbed carbon dioxide. This had led to decreased calcification of most corals.

The sea level had been rising since the Ice Age, Dr. Knap said, and was continuing to rise, which would have a direct impact on insured losses in storms and floods.

"In Fremantle, Australia, a one-in-five-year flood event is now a one-in-two," he added.

A rise of between 1.2 metres and 1.4 metres was estimated by the end of the century, he said.