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OECD predicts weak economic growth

PARIS (AP) — The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development foresees several quarters of weak growth for most of its 30 members, which include the US, Japan, and several European countries, and yesterday cut its economic growth outlook through next year.

While the "odds have improved" that the financial crisis has passed its peak, the effects on growth are likely to linger, the OECD said.

The combination of market turmoil, sharply higher oil and commodity prices and cooling housing markets has made it more difficult for policy-makers to gauge the correct response, the Paris-based organisation said.

Economic growth in the OECD's 30 members will slow to 1.8 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year, it said in its twice-yearly outlook. That compares with its previous forecast of 2.3 percent in 2008 and 2.4 percent in 2009.

Weak economic growth in the US is dragging down the overall forecast. The US economy will grow just 1.2 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009, the OECD predicted. Economic growth in the euro area and Japan will slow to 1.7 percent this year.

"OECD economies have been hit by strong gales over the recent past and it will take time and well judged policies to get back on course," said Jorgen Elmeskov, acting head of the OECD's economic department, in the report.

But the impact of the oil price shock combined with the market turmoil is "difficult to estimate." This, combined with weakening growth and inflation compounds "the risk of policy errors."

Central banks could err "in both directions," the OECD said.