Shirakawa proves to be the right man at the right time for Japan
TOKYO (Bloomberg) - It will be another 10 years before we can say whether Ben Bernanke is a genius or a madman.
For now, the activist and creative Federal Reserve chairman is getting the benefit of the doubt. Almost 75 percent of investors surveyed by Bloomberg News took a favourable view of the 55-year-old economist.
Let's consider another central banker deserving of praise during this crisis: Masaaki Shirakawa.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor hasn't garnered many headlines since taking over in April 2008. He has been a steady and even-handed presence at the central bank of the second-biggest economy. He has been, in other words, just what Japan needs.
It's true that Japan is back in recession and the forces of deflation are increasing again. On those grounds, the 59-year-old Shirakawa may seem like a failure. Taking the longer-term view, though, he gets high marks for four reasons.
One, crisis management. Shirakawa was always the accidental BOJ leader. He was a compromise candidate who got the nod after the opposition Democratic Party of Japan blocked the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) first two candidates. The University of Chicago-trained economist was well qualified, though.
Shirakawa took the monetary reins weeks after Bear Stearns Cos. imploded and he assured investors the central bank was prepared to do what it takes to thaw credit markets. He was also quick to cut interest rates and take a number of extraordinary steps following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Those actions - which included buying corporate debt from banks and providing them with unlimited loans - maintained calm in the bond market and probably helped restrain the effects of Japan's recession. It was a marked contrast from the government, which has been pretty clueless on the economic-policy front.
Two, demystifying the central bank. Within a few months of becoming governor, Shirakawa brought to Japan the kind of glasnost that Alan Greenspan introduced at the US Federal Reserve. By August 2008, the BOJ was stating clearly why it was changing interest rates. It also increased the number of forecasts it publishes, instead of signaling policy leanings at press conferences.
Opening the BOJ to a curious public has buttressed the central bank's credibility. Granted, it's hard to take seriously any monetary authority that leaves rates near zero for a decade. It has never been the most independent of major central banks, and Shirakawa's efforts to make it more transparent could increase the BOJ's autonomy.
Greater openness fits Shirakawa's style. He has proven to be more ad hoc than doctrinaire in his policy making. Offering more explicit explanations of what the BOJ is up to also may help it have its way with markets. Stock and bond trading would be smoother as a result.
Three, gravitas at Group of Seven meetings. Neither former BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui nor Masaru Hayami before him carried great weight at gatherings of top policy makers. As a respected economist, Shirakawa has raised Japan's stature at such confabs.
Much of the interest in Japan these days surrounds the risks that economies such as the US run in experiencing their own lost decade. It has never been more important for the BOJ to be taken seriously, though, given the revolving-door nature of the Finance Ministry.
Taro Aso, prime minister since September, is already on his second finance minister. Odds are that Japan will have another one after an election on August 30, when it's highly likely Aso's LDP will lose power. It has made Shirakawa the face of continuity at G-7 meetings.
Four, plotting an exit strategy. Even as he took extraordinary steps to shield the economy from the global crisis, Shirakawa spoke of the need to reverse them. On July 21, for example, the BOJ said it's considering when and how to return Japan's monetary environment to normalcy.
At the BOJ's June 15-16 meeting, policy makers agreed that it depends on the state of financial markets and corporate borrowing, and that keeping the policies for too long could cause "swings in economic activity and prices." Such statements serve as a reminder that Shirakawa hails from a university famed for its free-market views.
Stepping back from the last year of aggressive policy making won't be easy. Deflation is returning to Japan, complicating the BOJ's hopes of getting rates as far away from zero as possible. Aside from increased stimulus spending, the government seems devoid of fresh ideas to revive growth.
The onus to keep the recession from deepening will fall on the BOJ.
The good news is that the central bank is in good hands with Shirakawa.
While his options are limited and the global economy is still shaky, it's comforting to know a thoughtful and able person is in charge. It's a ray of light in an otherwise dark Japanese outlook.