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Keep your focus and ride the waves, HSBC wealth specialist tells investors

HSBC wealth specialist Rahul Khasgiwale

A visiting HSBC wealth specialist told investors in Bermuda yesterday to keep focused on long-term investment goals and not to make emotional decisions based on day-to-day headlines.Amid the volatile markets, swayed by concerns over euro zone sovereign debt and a slowdown in Chinese growth, Rahul Khasgiwale stressed a “back to basics” message in a presentation to clients.The Toronto-based expert said in an interview that investors should be prepared to consider equities in all market conditions and be prepared to accept the volatility, while focusing ensuring their asset allocation matched their goals and risk appetite, while always maintaining diversification. He suggested there were particularly attractive opportunities in emerging markets.And he warned investors not to try to time the markets and to avoid making emotional decisions, instead focusing on the big picture and the long term.“Right now, people are concerned about whether they should have exposure to equities,” Mr Khasgiwale said. “The questions to ask are whether you would get a better return from cash or from fixed-income investments such as government bonds.“The real yields from US Treasurys — that is, when you take inflation into account — are in negative territory. Historically equities have outpaced the rate of inflation and have also outperformed fixed-income and cash.“I don’t think there has been any 15-year rolling period when equities have not yielded positive returns. So we do think it’s important to consider equities for your portfolio.“In the long term, we do think growth is going to be positive, and we do see some signs of economic confidence.”Sticking to an asset allocation plan — and not fleeing from equities to fixed-income in turbulent markets, for example — would benefit investors over time, he said. For example, many of the retail investors who pulled out of stocks last September missed a roughly 30 percent climb in US stocks over the following five months. Missing out on those big market moves can have a significant impact on returns over time.Mr Khasgiwale said price/earnings ratios were lower than historical averages, indicating that stocks were cheap. He believed there was particular value in emerging markets, in both equities and debt, as these countries would see the strongest economic growth in the coming years.“There is concern over the China economy slowing down and the impact this would have on commodities,” Mr Khasgiwale said. “We believe China is going to have a soft landing. It has slowed down, but off very high levels. China has the means and the policies to be able to navigate through this slowing down through monetary easing, for example.”The prospect of a Greek exit from the euro zone is worrying many investors right now, and Mr Khasgiwale said there was a “fair chance” of the “Grexit” occurring. Spain’s banking crisis was another significant risk for Europe, highlighted by the $23 billion bailout of Bankia last week. “However, European policymakers have a number of tools at their disposal that they can deploy”, he added.“Equities in Europe are very attractively priced for long-term investors,” Mr Khasgiwale said, though he expected uncertainty to remain until at least until late June, after the Greek election offers some clarity on whether the country wants to remain in the euro.HSBC could help investors navigate the challenging conditions, with its global presence and expertise in many countries its differentiator, he said.Major risks for investors to bear in mind include high levels of unemployment, which tend to cause people to save more and spend less, hence hindering growth, Mr Khasgiwale said. High sovereign debt levels and fiscal deficits were also a risk, with emerging economies better positioned to deal with them than developed ones.