Damage from Hurricane Gonzalo could have been much worse — had the storm’s eye not passed directly over Bermuda and had Tropical Storm Fay not visited less than a week earlier.

That is the view of experts from catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide, who said the diameter of Gonzalo’s eye was twice the length of Bermuda.

Scott Stransky, manager and principal scientist at AIR, noted that buildings in Bermuda were designed to withstand sustained wind speeds up to 110mph and gusts up to 150mph and so it was “not surprising” that reports of significant structural damage were scarce.

“Damage may also have been mitigated by the very fact that the very large — and very calm — eye of Gonzalo passed over Bermuda, which reduced the total number of hours of significant winds,” Mr Stransky said.

“Nevertheless, roof damage — ranging from a few blown off tiles to, in some cases, loss of nearly the entire roof — is fairly widespread.”

AIR, which uses sophisticated computer software to model natural catastrophes for the insurance industry, said the eye of the storm made landfall on the south-central coast of Bermuda at 8.30pm on Friday evening.

Most residents then experienced an eerily calm period before high winds resumed, this time pummelling the Island from a westerly direction, instead of the earlier easterly winds.

Mr Stransky said the direct hit from Fay six days earlier may have helped the Island escape an even more savage hit.

“The storm weakened prior to landfall due to both lower sea surface temperatures and higher wind shear in the vicinity of Bermuda,” Mr Stransky said.

“Note that the centre of Tropical Storm Fay passed directly over the Island less than a week ago. It is likely that Fay’s passage reduced the sea surface temperatures around Bermuda and allowed Gonzalo to be just slightly weaker than it might have been.”

Mr Stransky said Bermuda had effectively passed “through the eye of a needle”.

“Gonzalo is just the third recorded Category 2 or above storm to pass directly over the island of Bermuda since NOAA’s official hurricane database, HURDAT, began in 1851,” he said. “The other storms were in 1895 and 1922. Hurricane Fabian’s track was just west of the Island in 2003, and the centre did not pass directly overhead.”

The observed winds from Gonzalo were a bit lower than Fabian’s, which caused about $300 million of loss in 2003 dollars; AIR estimates that a recurrence of Fabian today would cost the industry around $650 million.

“When the eye began to come onshore, the storm was still Category 3 with 115mph winds, but by the time the very centre passed overhead, Gonzalo had weakened to Category 2, with 110mph winds,” Mr Stransky said. “The strongest observed winds at the Bermuda airport were 93mph sustained, gusting to 113mph. A station at nearly 300 feet above sea level in Commissioner’s Point reported a gust of 144mph; however, it should be noted that winds at this elevation can be up to 30 percent higher than locations at sea level.”

AIR said it had a team on the ground in Bermuda carrying out a damage survey.