Kingston (Panos) ¿ Caribbean scientists are predicting that the visitor fall-off to the region could get worse as the impact of climate change becomes more pronounced on the fragile Caribbean islands

According to Dr. John Agard, a regional scientist and Chairman of the Environmental Management Authority of Trinidad and Tobago, the negative effects of climate change are causing islands in the region to lose the 'sense of place' that is uniquely Caribbean, which tourists who come to the region expect to find here.

That 'sense of place' or what Dr. Agard refers to as the 'cultural aesthetics' of the Caribbean is also one of the key components around which the region's eco-tourism product is being built.

"People who live on islands have a sense of place and belonging that is closely linked to the fusion of the natural systems (environment) with human systems. For example, more than half the vegetation that is found in Jamaica is unique to Jamaica and cannot be found anywhere else and if it is lost from Jamaica, it cannot be replaced," he said.

"So you will find in Jamaica that people allude frequently to the different kinds of vegetation that they are accustomed to, the different landscapes, such as the Blue Mountains, unique flavours, such as the Blue Mountain Coffee or Jamaican Rum, that becomes part of them, part of their culture, which induces a sense of loss when they go elsewhere, a yearning for the familiarity and what makes them unique."

He explained that he had been a part of a team which conducted a millennium ecosystem assessment of small islands from 2003-2005. He said the study, which was initiated by the United Nations, revealed that one of the critical characteristics of islands is what was described as "islandness".

"People from other places will come to Jamaica and other islands (in the region) to experience the unique 'islandness' of that place and they are willing to pay for it!" said Agard, who was part of a team of regional scientists who met this week for two days at the University of the West Indies, Mona, to share the findings of literature reviews on the effects of climate change on biodiversity in the region. The meeting was organised by the Caribbean Natural Resources Institute as part of a larger regional project on climate change funded by the MacArthur Foundation.

"Climate change is one of the threats to that sense of place!" said Agard while explaining that changes in climate patterns will cause some endemic plants to die. This will not only change the aesthetics of the areas they formally occupied, but affect their appeal as areas of interest for eco-tourism, such as Fern Gully in St. Ann and Holland Bamboo in St. Elizabeth. There has been a noticeable decline in the growth of ferns and bamboo at both locations in recent years.

According to Dr. Agard, the Caribbean is not the only region which faces this threat. He said the culture and identity of owners of traditional vineyards in France are closely linked to the grapes of a particular flavour, which are used to make certain wines and can only be produced under certain climatic conditions which exists in areas of France. He said those wine growers are now concerned that as the earth's temperature continue to rise, the grapes which they use to make champagne for example, will not be able to be grown in Champagne, France, but might, ironically be able to be grown elsewhere in the world.

It appears that the effects of the threat which Dr. Agard warns of are already being felt by coffee farmers in the Blue Mountains of Jamaica. There are reports that the farmers are complaining that the flavour of the world renowned Blue Mountain Coffee is changing as a result of global warming which is causing less mist to develop in the mountains. The berries of the coffee plant which is used to make the product requires cool temperatures in order for them to produce coffee with the unique flavour that Jamaica has boasted about for decades. The majority of the island's coffee farms are located in the Blue Mountain region. The farmers are complaining that the coffee is becoming increasingly bitter and unpleasant to the taste buds. "The traditional Blue Mountain Coffee is losing its unique flavour, which is the key quality that has been used to market the product," they claim.

Local scientists are currently conducting investigations to determine if the change which the farmers notice in the taste of the coffee is linked to climate change.

"If the mists which we think are why (the Blue Mountain Coffee) has that unique taste, begin to recede as some are claiming, and the coffee then gets bitter as a response, then that will have an impact on every Jamaican, because they are very proud of the fact that the coffee from the Blue Mountain is the best in the world and it comes from Jamaica!" Agard explained.

Agard and other scientists attending the conference which was held on February 11-12, shared the concern that the region's ecotourism product is in serious danger due to bleaching of coral reefs and other environmental impact of climate change which will result in more frequent and stronger storms, from which the reefs will take longer to recover. Recent studies have shown that reefs in the region now take up to eight years to fully recover from storm activity.

"This will lead to the death of fish stock, because the reefs are one of the main areas where they get nutrients. As sea temperatures continue to rise, they will migrate to cooler waters outside of the Caribbean where there are more nutrients," said Professor Anthony Chen of the Physics Department at the University of the West Indies.

With the death of the coral reefs, diving tourism activities in the region such as snorkelling and scuba diving will become less viable.

The Caribbean is one of the most tourism dependent regions in the world. Although accounting for a mere three percent of international tourist arrivals, the tourism sector in the Caribbean is a significant contributor to the incomes, employment, foreign exchange and growth of the region. The Caribbean recorded 19.5 million tourist arrivals and more than 12 million cruise ship passenger visits in 1999. The Caribbean Tourism Organisation estimated that tourism generated 900,000 direct and indirect jobs in the region in 1999.

As other regions have become popular as tourism destinations, the Caribbean has had to find innovative ways to reinvent its tourism product and the region's hope for the future of tourism is now heavily hinged on the success of eco-tourism. An important obvious success factor is to conserve the environment — the very basis of the tourism experience.

Agard stressed the urgency of addressing the problem.

"The feeling out there is that this is a slow process and that what is happening now is 'climate variability' and climate change is something that will happen in the future. Climate change is happening now! If we don't stress that urgency we give the world another reason to delay," Agard said.