sweep all traditional business before it -- changing forever the way we buy and sell. Nowhere more so than travel has there been a growth of web-based services. Will the traditional travel agent survive or will the web consume all? Tim Greenfield reports.

Despite the widely-held view that the massive expansion of the Internet will infiltrate or takeover much of the way the world does business, not all vendors are quaking behind their desktops.

In Bermuda, e-commerce has taken off in a big way but, so far, it seems the growth of travel-related websites has yet to have a significant effect on high street agents.

Whereas in the US, travel stores are closing at a rapid rate due to the loss of airline commissions and the rise of Internet bookings, on the Island the web has not stretched that far -- yet.

Local agents believe that, despite customers thinking the web offers better deals at a cheaper price, their knowledge, experience and reputation will carry them through.

And they argue that if trust can be established with a client, they can show that in many cases, agents are not actually more expensive than the web.

Bermuda Travel Agents Association president Patti Daly Franklin said agents do invest in websites to inform clients, but adds that there is no substitute for personal service.

Agencies such as hers rely upon years of experience and knowledge from staff, who come to know clients' requirements and have actually visited many of the places they want to go to.

In addition, training ensures staff keep up to date with the latest trends and offers.

And, she said, they can show customers that in most cases their flight or trip is not cheaper on the net.

"I have agents who know travel and know how to book the most effective travel route possible, for the best possible value for the customer,'' she said.

"That is the only way I can keep in business. I don't believe the travel agent will be replaced by the virtual travel agent. Most agents in Bermuda are trying to do the best possible job. There is a misconception that agents are pricing up, that is not the case.'' Ms Daly Franklin said whereas agents charge $10 per airline ticket, web travel sites can levy up to $35 per booking. And, she said, agents can use their knowledge to build fares using the best times and rates, something that a computer may not be able to do. And, if there is a problem with your holiday, an agency is on hand to help you sort the complaint out.

Threat of the virtual travel agent According to management consultant Joe Babiec, whose Monitor company has worked with the Bermuda tourism industry, travel agents' demise has been the subject of many false dawns.

Each advance in technology heralds the death knell, but each time the best and most adaptable businesses survive, he said.

"Travel agents are a remarkably resilient group, they have been about to become extinct for decades,'' he said.

But, he said, the advance of technology such as direct marketing or 1-800 numbers has not killed them off, but simply divided the companies into two broad groups.

There are those that add "unique value'' to the services they provide, but also charge for certain extras whilst satisfying their clients. And those agents constantly change and evolve, using the new technology to their advantage.

On the other hand, there are businesses that are price driven and try to cut costs by using the latest innovations.

"They exist because there are some people who don't like to deal with technology and value human interface,'' said Mr. Babiec. "But the Internet is going to chip away at the value.'' In Bermuda's case, when going after north American business, it is important that hotels and tourism officials align themselves with agents in the first category -- who can deliver those clients seeking higher value holidays.

"That is the real challenge for Bermuda, it needs to know who the right agents are,'' he said.

Bermuda Tourism has vaunted the agent as their main source of business for a long time. It puts on tours to the US and Canada, informing agents of what is happening on the Island, and uses its North American staff to provide support to agents.

Advertising uses 1-800 numbers and directs people to travel agents -- although there is a web site about the Island.

Tourism director Gary Phillips says his department is constantly monitoring new developments and trends in the industry, but adds that the signs are that the traditional agent is still the most common avenue for Bermuda-bound business.

"Everything we read and research we see at the moment, indicates that our prime agents are still very, very critical to maintaining a high profile of Bermuda with their clients,'' he said.

There was nothing to suggest that the travel agent as a booking source and point of influencing the customer was not going to continue to be important, he said.

But US analysts say the traveling public ultimately wins out, getting a chance at good deals from online price wars as well as better service from the agents who survive and adapt.

"If you want to do, say, a bike tour in France, you'll be able to find an agent who's a specialist at that now,'' said Seema Williams, an analyst for Forrester Research in Cambridge, Mass. "You're going to find an increasingly expert, specialised agent.'' According to the Airlines Reporting Corp., the number of US travel agencies dropped five percent from 30,300 in 1997 to 28,800 last year, the lowest level since 1986.

"With a half-hour search online, you can do a pretty good job of finding deals that might exist exclusively on the Web,'' Ms Williams said.

Travel agents still do more than $100 billion in annual business, according to the American Society of Travel Agents, and write 80 percent of US airline tickets.

But while online travel is expected to account for just four percent of all airline ticket sales and three percent of overall travel bookings in 1999, sales are projected to quadruple to $16.6 billion by 2003, according to Jupiter Communications, a New York e-commerce research firm.

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