Bermuda's AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) awareness charity has predicted a rise in the number of people who will contract the virus that causes the disease over the next few years.

Michael Fox, executive director of the Allan Vincent Smith Foundation (AVSF), said this was mainly because Bermuda has a large number of sexually active young teenagers who do not remember the darkest days of the disease in the 1980s and early 90s.

He said he thought people were becoming "too complacent" about the risks of contracting HIV (Human Immuno-defficiency Virus) and added that he knew of children as young as 13 who were having sex.

"They are at the greatest risk because they are totally unaware of the past fights and struggles in the history of HIV/AIDS. The decisions they make today will make a profound impact on their futures and they need to think twice before making them."

Mr. Fox said young people should also demand information about AIDS from Government's education department and should look at the AVSF website (www.avsf.bm).

Meanwhile, Mr. Fox gave a guarded welcome to new statistics that show the number of people contracting HIV/AIDS does not seem to be rising.

The figures, released this week by Government, show that there have been only two new cases for the first three months of this year, while sadly there had also been two deaths.

For the whole of last year, there were eight cases, while the year before that there were 12, and in 2000 there were 19 new cases.

While Mr. Fox guardedly welcomed the figures, he said he thought there would be an increase in future infections because "people are becoming too complacent" about HIV/AIDS.

He added that he knew testing for HIV/AIDS to be up this year, and said this was most likely because of an increased awareness of the dangers among pregnant mothers.

On the new figures, Mr. Fox said: "We must be doing something right."

"It's a collective effort between this foundation and the other community based groups. Some people are paying attention to the messages. However, I think we are going to see an increase in infections because people are becoming too complacent."

He said this was because of the fact that younger people are just now becoming sexually active, including children who were born around the year 1990.

"We don't see the death and destruction that we used to see in the 1980s and 90s. But one message that we want to get out is that we have conclusive proof that this is not a 'gay' disease. Anyone is susceptible to HIV/AIDS."

The total number of HIV/AIDS cases in Bermuda right now is 478, and 379 people have died from the disease since records started to be kept in 1982.

Of the total number of cases, 76 percent are male and 24 percent are female. People infected due to intravenous drug use made up 38.7 percent of the total number, while 29 percent contracted it through homosexual sex and 25.9 percent through heterosexual sex. Meanwhile, 5.5 percent of people were infected by other means, including hereditary infection.

By racial breakdown, the black community has taken the brunt of HIV infections, with more than 90 percent of cases.

Anyone wishing to find out information about the risks of HIV/AIDS should call the AVSF help line on 295-0002.