Smith's North

PLP seat. Majority: 123 votes. Candidates Patrice Minors PLP, Michael Dunkley UBP.

Simmons: Patrice Minors to win. Never underestimate the work ethic and money of Michael Dunkley who has been canvassing for almost two years and allegedly plying potential voters with free groceries! Parris' soft-spoken demeanour and demotion from Cabinet haven't helped her cause but the PLP have held this area since the 1960s and have put the time, energy and resources into ensuring that they send the UBP's leader down to defeat. Dunkley will have to count on low PLP turnout and drawing a substantial number of black votes to pull off the upset.

Jeffers: "That's an interesting one. Patrice is a fine young lady but the hospital fiasco will hurt her." A low profile since returning to the backbenches hasn't helped her cause said Mr. Jeffers. "The mere fact Dunkley is running there and he's the leader? Will some votes swing his leader because people will want to see him undefeated? How many people are fence sitters? I don't' know. That one is going to be difficult one — it could be one of the surprises. I give the edge to Patrice but I wouldn't be surprised if Dunkley pulled it off."

UBP source: "Patrice will win. It is safe to say that on the day number ten will come home for the Dame."

PLP dissident: "Michael will take it. He's worked hard. He's the UBP leader. There's a lot of disaffection. Yes, you have your core supporters but what will decide this election are the marginal voters. And the PLP are not playing to the marginal voters they are only playing to the choir. And the last time — I don't care what that vote margin was — people were shocked that Patrice got in. They did not count that seat at all, it was a fluke. She's very wishy washy, she had that fiasco with the hospital."

Devonshire East

All pundits predict Bob Richards to keep Michael Dunkley's old seat in the UBP fold.

Devonshire South Central

All pundits predict a walkover for the UBP's John Barritt.

Devonshire North Central

PLP seat. Majority: 105. Candidates: Glenn Blakeney PLP, Albertha Waite UBP.

Simmons: Glenn Blakeney to retain the seat with a 100-plus vote majority. The UBP candidate's lack of national profile and lack of appeal among young female voters should see the incumbent returned to office easily. To win the UBP would need a high turnout of their base combined with a low PLP turnout and/or drawing heavily from the PLP's base.

Jeffers: "I am giving that to Albertha Waite. She was the spokesperson for the UBP when they wanted to build more housing units up there, she is very outspoken. She did her homework. She had a programme helping a lot of young girls at Bermuda College who were working part-time as cashiers and she would try to make sure they had time off for school. When you look at Glenn Blakeney he's been involved in controversy but what do you see Glenn Blakeney doing? I haven't heard of any big initiatives taken on by him or him speaking out against anything."

UBP source: "I think it is up in the air. I think Albertha is working extremely hard. Glenn Blakeney will have to keep a close eye on her. It's a seat to watch."

PLP dissident: "I think Albertha has it. She did a lot with that housing project. No, she's not really popular, she's a little bit bossy but Glenn has increasingly been coming across as jive — a PLP hack. I think this particular election, those who want to be PLP hacks will have more of a difficult time. I think in order to be successful I think they are going to have to stand in their own right."

Devonshire West

All pundits certain Paula Cox will retain it for the PLP

Pembroke East

All pundits certain Walter Roban will retain the PLP seat vacated by Ottiwell Simmons

Pembroke East Central

All pundits tip Nelson Bascome to retain the PLP stronghold.

Pembroke Central

PLP seat. Majority: 75. Candidates Wayne Perinchief, PLP, Austin Warner UBP, Harold Darrell Indep.

Simmons: Wayne Perinchief — demographic advantage combined with low profile UBP candidate and an independent who will certainly take votes from the UBP.

Jeffers: "I know all three candidates. Wayne and I were in the same class in high school." Mr. Jeffers said one voter from that area had told him he'd switched to Warner after unhappiness with Government's decision to grant a two-storey parking lot for the First Church of God in the cramped area of North Shore Road which had originally been rejected. "The PLP didn't have any good feelings from the neighbours there so he could take a little stick over that." Mr. Jeffers believes independent Harold Darrell will pull support from the PLP. "He may take enough votes to tip it in the direction of Warner. That is one of the closest to call because of the three people there but Warner's chances are good."

UBP source: "Wayne Perinchief will come home with more than 50 votes. I think you will see the party support panning out as it did in the last election. There might be a new surge of people attracted to the possibilities of an independent candidate."

PLP dissident: "I know Wayne is having a hard time on the doorstep! In addition to that the thing with the Church of God on North Shore is hurting him badly. The only question I would have is how credible is Austin Warner? But he's worked hard. I would have given this to Wayne just on the off chance this time around but with the spoiler I will give it to Austin. They have a large blue collar working class which is disaffected with Ewart and his elite style of Government so what you are going to have is low voter turn out there plus a spoiler which won't help Wayne."

Pembroke West Central

PLP seat. Majority: 271. Candidates: Neletha Butterfield PLP, Marilyn Steede UBP, Roger Russell, Independent.

Simmons: Neletha Butterfield will win because of demographic advantage combined with extremely weak UBP candidate. Don't be surprised if independent Russell outperforms the UBP.

Jeffers: "Neletha will win. She's regarded as hard worker, not only in politics but in the community. Some of the decisions she has made may be questionable but as a minister you expect that is going to happen. I think she's done enough to make sure she gets returned.

UBP source: "Neletha Butterfield will go back and there won't be much action with the independent who will find himself as in the same position as Darrell."

PLP dissident: "I don't see how she holds on to that seat but apparently she does a lot of constituency work so she's got it. I don't think Roger Russell will garner enough to affect anything."

Our pundits all predicted the UBP's Shawn Crockwell and Louise Jackson to hold Pembroke West and Pembroke West Central, the PLP's Ashfield DeVent to hold Pembroke South East and the UBP's Grant Gibbons and Patricia Gordon-Pamplin to hold Paget East and Paget West.

Tomorrow: How the West will be won Warwick, Southampton and Sandys.