I<$> HAD initially intended to wait until former Tourism and Transport Minister Dr. Ewart Brown had unveiled his vision of Bermuda’s future before commenting on his bid for the leadership of the Progressive Labour Party — and, by extension, the leadership of Bermuda. This is a momentous turn of events in Bermuda’s modern political history and I believed I should have all of the information at hand before weighing in on Dr. Brown’s decision to resign from Cabinet and challenge sitting Premier Alex Scott.

However, having glanced at the reactionary anti-Bermudian current affairs web site Limey In Bermuda and looked at the results of the poll being conducted there on the question of who the island’s next leader should be, I am forced to ask the following question: Are we witnessing the instantaneous — well-nigh miraculous — rehabilitation of Alex Scott by those who have been among his harshest and most persistent critics?

There’s never been any love lost between the Premier and the regular, reactionary commentators at that rabidly anti-Bermudian online forum. The posters there — the overwhelming majority of whom are too cowardly to sign their real names to virulent attacks on Bermuda’s black leadership, attacks which tend to make the recent anti-expatriate flyers look like love notes in comparison — have suddenly decided Alex Scott is some kind of a cross between Nelson Mandela and Gandhi.

The online poll numbers at LIB show his popularity going through the roof with more than 70 per cent of voters backing him while support for Dr. Brown is practically non-existent.

Given the history of this web site and the extreme reluctance of its regular posters to give any credit whatsoever to any black leaders in this country (except those they view as the malleable, moderate-to-conservative variety), I am not sure if this sudden endorsement of Alex Scott — whose poll numbers in the general population are at an all-time low — will be a source of much comfort for the embattled Premier.

Frankly, winning the support of LIB contributors in his ongoing leadership battle with Dr. Brown is the political equivalent of being handed the poison chalice — enough to give even Alex Scott pause before he draws any type of comfort from the lopsided show of support he receives at that web site.

It’s useful to remember that not so long ago Alex Scott’s stock with posters at the infamous LIB web site was lower than John Deuss’ reputation in business circles.

In fact, like most representatives of the Progressive Labour Party Government, he was routinely scorned and ridiculed by the same people who have now decided he is now Bermuda’s saviour — at least compared to Dr. Brown.

Frankly, the scenario being played out at LIB is the same one being played out — to a greater or lesser extent — across the Bermudian community. When it comes to the choice between Mr. Scott and Dr. Brown, Bermudians seem to be opting for the incumbent not out of any enthusiasm or passion but on the basis that he probably represents the lesser of two evils. It’s the Better-The-Devil-You-Know syndrome — an unwillingness to make a clean break with a patently failed leader and promote a brilliant but admittedly controversial public figure to the position of Premier. A Brown leadership would be characterised by both instinct and a willingness to both embrace and act on the desires of the PLP core support base. Contrast this prospect to the current Premier, whose decision-making is governed by polls and focus groups.

I am afraid this has been my view of Mr. Scott for a long time now — a man who has put political principle and initiative and boldness to one side and who is content to be directed by poll numbers. In the wake of the failed Premiership of Dame Jennifer Smith — almost removed from office at the last General Election by her own constituents before her MPs took matters into their own hands — there has been a crisis of expectations in the PLP’s support base.

Those who voted the PLP into office for the first time in 1998 had seen their concerns consistently ignored by a Government that supposedly represented their interests.

Topping the list of these concerns, of course, was affordable housing. But the PLP failed to address this burning question throughout its first term and as we approach the end of its second five-year term, I think it’s fair to say there has still been little to no movement on this front.

Yet — in a bitter irony — the PLP did take decisive action when it came to the vexed question of long-term residents. In the teeth of fervent opposition from its own political supporters, it’s questionable whether or not the PLP gained any significant new political support from its efforts to resolve this long outstanding matter — and, in fact, it may well have alienated some of the votes it has taken for granted for so many years.

The United Bermuda Party’s continuing inability to make political capital out of this growing crisis of expectations probably speaks more to ongoing disarray and disorganisation within the Opposition than it does to any containment — or reduction — of the frustration felt by the PLP faithful.

Mounting unhappiness with the consequences of operating a two-lane economy — expatriates cruising breezily down the fast lane, the majority of Bermudians lagging behind in the slow lane (or stalled in the breakdown lane on the shoulder of the highway) — is an issue the PLP leadership will one day have to come to grips with.

Dr. Brown has made some interesting comments on the prospects of Bermudian Independence and has hinted that, as Premier, he will address the issue anew.

Now, I am a staunch supporter of Bermudian Independence as my regular readers will know. I believe that Dr. Brown is also. But it is quite clear to everyone that the PLP has made a hash out of the latest Independence initiative centred around the Bermuda Independence Commission and its flawed final report.

The Scott Government never had any hope of moving towards sovereign Independence without being an open and consistent advocate of this objective. It needed to lead the charge — and never did.

While it’s true a few individual MPs expressed support for Independence, the PLP Government as a whole never nailed its colours to the sovereignty mast.

Premier Scott’s approach to the question of Independence has been lukewarm, at best.While<$> I do support Bermudian Independence, if I was Premier and had to make a decision on the issue at this juncture then I would opt for a strategic retreat with the view of coming back in a stronger, better organised way at some point in the future.And I would not be surprised to learn that Dr. Brown is thinking in such terms — withdrawing from the current Independence morass and then coming back with a clear, completely unambiguous policy statement that would become the strategy of his Government.

He has called Bermuda “an island nation” (my sentiments exactly) when he refers to the future of our country — suggesting that nationhood is his ultimate ambition.

But, unlike Premier Scott whose credibility on the question of Independence is now in tatters, only Dr. Brown can put distance between the PLP and sovereignty without seeming to be fleeing from an issue that has been so cackhandedly dealt with in recent years.

This is one of the greatest advantages Dr. Brown has over Premier Scott. He can announce bold steps and outline a radically different vision for Bermuda’s future whereas the incumbent has pretty much shot his bolt in this regard.

I eagerly await the new vision Dr. Brown has promised to put before the people. Will it really represent a potential new direction for both Bermuda and the PLP Government?

Or will it boil down to another string of warmed-over slogans and clichés, the kind we have become so used to hearing from our political leaders in recent years?

Only time will tell. But if I was a betting man, I know what I would put my money on.