Scientists and insurers will meet in Bermuda on Friday to discuss research results into predicting conditions that control hurricane landfall.

This workshop on October 3 is sponsored and organised by the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI), a science-business partnership based at the Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR).

RPI's goal is to help businesses world-wide better understand, assess and manage climate-related risks, according to a BBSR Press release.

With Bermuda still picking up after Hurricane Fabian and the United States recovering from Isabel, the 2003 hurricane season seems destined to be memorable.

Dr. Richard Murnane, the science programme manager of RPI, said it was difficult to say if this year was worse than others.

For example, at this time last year Hurricane Isidore, a Category 3 storm, and Hurricanes Kyle and Lili had developed.

Hurricane Kyle was only a Category 1 storm, but it lasted for 22 days, the third longest-lived tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic. In addition, seven tropical storms struck the United States in 2002, and Hurricanes Isidore and Lili caused more than $100 million and $400 million, respectively, in insured losses.

"While Fabian's visit will make 2003 a notable year for Bermuda, and Isabel sustained Category five winds for a particularly long time," said Dr. Murnane, "statistics suggest that this year's hurricane season might not be that unusual for the Atlantic basin".

The research to be presented at the RPI workshop aims to provide insights that will allow scientists to eventually answer questions like:

What signals in the atmosphere and ocean can be detected and used to differentiate conditions in different years?

Can we find precursors that indicate whether a hurricane season will result in more significant landfalls than other years?

Do the recent hurricane strikes imply that the probability of hurricane landfall is changing?

According to Dr. Murnane, the factors controlling a hurricane include sea surface temperatures greater than 80 degrees Fahrenheit and a humid and unstable atmosphere. However, a hurricane may not form even when all these conditions are present.

"Once formed, a hurricane's intensity is controlled by factors such as the difference in temperature between the sea surface and the upper atmosphere, and the direction and strength of winds at different heights in the atmosphere.

"Warmer temperatures in surface waters and weak winds blowing in a consistent direction above a hurricane promote the intensification of a storm. Large-scale features in the atmosphere, such as the location of high and low-pressure systems, influence the track of a hurricane.

"Previous studies show that during the 20th century, changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions produced long-term (ten to 30-year) periods of relatively high and low hurricane activity in the Atlantic. However, it is still difficult to accurately predict activity in upcoming seasons."

To improve scientists' ability to forecast upcoming hurricane seasons, long records of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressures, and compilations of hurricane track, intensity and landfall must be developed.

Much of the RPI-supported research is targeted toward extending the historical record of hurricane landfall, track and intensity. Additional research is aimed at understanding atmospheric conditions that are important for controlling hurricanes.

A combination of these and other research efforts will be required to accurately predict the activity of upcoming hurricane seasons and to answer whether one hurricane season is significantly different from another.

The scientists participating in the October workshop come from all over the world and receive financial support for their research from RPI's sponsors.

Jeff Donnelly of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts and Kwok Fai Chueng from the University of Hawaii will present results from their studies of historic and prehistoric hurricane landfalls in the New York City region.

Ricardo Garc?a-Herrera, from the Universidad Complutense in Madrid, will discuss his work with Jesuit records of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific.

Manfred Mudelsee from Boston University and the University of Leipzig, Pascal Mailier from the University of Reading, and Ming Cai from Florida State University will present results from their research on variations in the probability of European windstorms.

RPI is currently supported by ACE Tempest Reinsurance Limited, AXIS Specialty Limited, Montpelier Reinsurance Ltd, Renaissance Reinsurance Ltd., State Farm Fire and Casualty Company, Swiss Reinsurance Company, and XL Re Ltd.