Climate change experts are warning Bermudians get used to the feeling of being in a hurricane shooting gallery because indications are the Island will face a greater number of hurricane threats ? and much fiercer storms ? for the foreseeable future.

In the past month three hurricanes have barrelled across the North Atlantic with Florence's massive storm system giving the Island its closest encounter as it side-swiped from a distance of 80 miles on September 11.

Favourable pressure systems and high altitude winds pushed hurricanes Gordon and Helene safely to the east of the Island, although the sea surges from Helene caused dangerous beach conditions for bathers last week.

Experts agree the Atlantic basin is in the middle of a cyclical warm period and that means increased hurricane and tropical storm activity. How long this cycle will last is unknown, it might end quickly or continue for another 40 years. "For Bermuda there is real relevance because the Island is in the alley where these tropical storms go," said Prof. Peter H?ppe, a German meteorologist who is also head of geo risks research and environmental management for the Munich Re Group.

?The other danger for Bermuda is sea level rise. We know the sea levels have already risen by a couple of centimetres.?

Global warming, whether caused by a natural cycle or as a consequence of manmade pollution, is now widely recognised as a genuine phenomenon.

By the end of this century sea temperatures are expected to be between 0.5C and 1.5C higher than today. As sea water warms it expands and by the year 2100 the sea that laps against Bermuda?s pink beaches could be up to one metre higher than today.

?The Causeway from the Airport could be flooded,? he pointed out. However, even this only takes into account projected warming and expanding of the oceans. A trickier prediction is what will happen to the vast ice fields of Greenland and ice sheets of the Arctic and Antarctica as global temperatures rise.

?If all the ice in Greenland melted it would raise the sea levels by between six and nine metres and that would pose a real problem for Bermuda,? speculated Prof. H?ppe.

Over history the Island has been subjected to fluctuating sea levels, when sea levels dropped the island has swollen to more than 400 square miles with dry land stretching out as far to North Rock. Likewise, the island has shrunken to a much smaller slither of land than the present day when sea levels were last higher. And although unlikely to happen Bermuda could vanish totally if the Arctic ice cap melted. That would push the world?s oceans 90 metres higher, placing the Island?s highest point Town Hill in Smith?s 14 metres under the waves.

Prof. H?ppe is on the Island to speak to representatives of the Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers and the Reinsurance Association of America about climate change. He was joined by Ivo Menzinger, head of sustainability and emerging risk management for Swiss Re.

Both men have extensive experience of weather pattern modelling as it relates to predicting natural disasters from hurricanes to floods, tsunamis and other natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanoes.

Prof. H?ppe has in the past two years had personal experience of an earthquake, tsunami and a typhoon.

As the two men relaxed at the Hamilton Princess, Prof. H?ppe said: ?Both of us believe climate change is real and it has been confirmed over the last couple of decades. In the last century air temperature has risen 0.8C and the sea surface temperature in the areas where the tropical storms form has gone up 0.5C.?

Global warming and the reappearance of a natural cycle of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic are the reason for the higher number of hurricanes and tropical storms and their increased intensity.

Mr. Menzinger explained that a natural cycle of warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic has returned. The cycle repeats every 50 to 70 years and the current trend began in 1995.

?There is a scientific debate saying it is only a natural cycle and not human-induced. But where there is strong agreement is that we are seeing sea temperatures increasing in different ocean basins,? he said.

Hurricanes are typically generated when sea temperatures are 27C or higher. Sea temperatures are touching that temperature further and further north, presenting a danger to Europe from weakened hurricanes making landfall when they still pack a tropical storm-sized punch.

That kind of information is highly relevant to insurance and reinsurance companies as they assess the likely risk of damage to people and property in those areas. In the past few years a number of tropical storm systems originating off the African coast have broken from the normal pattern of heading west across the Atlantic and instead swung directly towards Europe.

This year?s hurricane season has, to date, been low-key compared with the rampant damage visited upon mainland US by the likes of hurricanes Rita and Katrina in late 2005. Prof. H?ppe said that is to be expected as even in the higher activity cycle there will be ?quieter periods.? High altitude winds have helped weaken the hurricanes that have menaced the Atlantic this year.

Mr. Menzinger explained: ?The sheer winds have cut off the tops of the hurricanes and that meant they were not so powerful. This year there has also been sandstorms in the area of Africa where the hurricanes originate and that has affected things, although how this all relates is not really understood.?

As the two men prepared to address leading insurance representatives they agreed the business community readily accepted the affects of climate change.