The PLP would have won a third term in power if an election had been held in the last two weeks, a new poll reveals today.

But the margin of victory would have hung on a knife-edge, with 31 per cent of those polled plumping for the ruling party and 27 per cent throwing their weight behind the Opposition.

However, in a worrying development for both the PLP and UBP support for Bermuda's main political parties appears to have slumped to its lowest point over the last six months, results from a new Research Innovation poll indicate.

And apathy seems to be on the rise. Nearly 15 per cent of people quizzed said they would not have voted for either Premier Alex Scott or Opposition Leader Wayne Furbert, while almost one in five refused to say which way they would sway.

The results came after pollsters asked a sample of voters in mid-September who they would probably vote for if there was an immediate election. The phone survey was conducted between September 14 and 17 ? after Government made public controversial $500 million plans to build a replacement hospital in the middle of the Botanical Gardens.

The last poll carried out for The Royal Gazette in July suggested yet another close-run election contest. Then PLP support stood at 33 per cent with the UBP getting a 31 per cent share. People voting for neither party stood at eight per cent.

Our May results indicated 34 per cent of voters would have backed the PLP in a snap election, with 29 per cent supporting the Opposition. Six months ago, in March, there was clearer light between the two parties. Figures stood at 39 per cent (PLP) and 28 per cent (UBP). Meanwhile, at that stage, eleven per cent of voters quizzed said they would not vote for any party.

PLP spokesman Scott Simmons, responding to the latest results, said last night: "While the UBP is out talking, we have been busy working.

"It's clear and has been for some time that the PLP remains the party of choice throughout Bermuda and those (voters) that remain unclear, we feel, will choose the PLP."

Attempts to get a response from Premier Alex Scott were unsuccessful last night.

UBP leader Wayne Furbert said the apparently increasing number of people not wanting to vote for either party should worry Government ? because it had been in power for nearly eight years.

"The gap between the Government's promise and performance is driving this result, and it is only natural that people are looking for answers."

He said the Opposition would soon reveal education, crime and housing plans.

Mr Furbert added: "In the meantime, Bermudians of all stripes ? UBP or PLP, independent or disillusioned ? should be demanding the Government do better."

The detailed breakdown of the latest results throw up some interesting trends, with 36 per cent of women polled backing the PLP. This compares to 26 per cent of females supporting the UBP.

Older voters are split right down the middle on who they would support, according to the poll, with 31 per cent of over-55s voting for the Government and exactly the same number going for the Opposition.

Apathy does not appear to be confined to one age group, however.

A total of 26 per cent of the 18 to 35 age bracket said they would not vote for any party, compared to 16 per cent of 36- to 54-year-olds and nearly eight per cent of those aged 55-plus.

When it comes to earnings, more than 40 per cent of people with a household income of less than $50,000 said they would vote for Government.

Less than 20 per cent of that group plumped for the Opposition.

Voters bringing in between $50,000 and $100,000 were split 26 per cent (PLP) and 30 per cent (UBP), while 41 per cent of those earning more than $100,000 said they would back the Opposition. Some 20 per cent of the richer group supported Government.

Elsewhere, the race breakdown saw nearly half of blacks (49 per cent) polled state they would vote PLP; 12 per cent would vote UBP. Just one per cent of whites said they would support Government ? compared to 60 per cent backing the Opposition.

@EDITRULE:

*See tomorrow's Royal Gazette for voters' verdicts on how Alex Scott is doing his job ? and what they think of Wayne Furbert.