States would mean curtailment of the United States military establishments overseas. It is impossible to believe that with the end of the Cold War the United States, pressured for cash, would not take a hard look at the necessity of its overseas bases. With the collapse of the Soviet military, what the United States saw as "enemy'' submarines in the Atlantic disappeared. The US bases in Bermuda, both at Kindley Field and at Tudor Hill in Southampton, had been occupied tracking those submarines. For about three years now there have been no Soviet submarines to track.

It can, of course, be argued that with ongoing turmoil in the old Soviet Union the concept of an "outer rim of defences'' for the continental United States is still valid. We think it would be difficult to convince US voters of that in areas where US home bases are being closed. The Clinton administration is faced with the double consideration of both cash and politics in reviewing the bases in Bermuda. Clearly it would not be able to make a case for continuing with the Naval Annex in Sandys Parish but given huge uncertainties over the future of the Soviet Union the Clinton administration may well make a case to continue Kindley Field but on a very limited basis. The United States may well decide that it wants to keep Kindley Field, just in case.

There are enormous disadvantages to Bermuda if it loses the base in terms of the money lost from the economy which is now supplied by services to the base and cash spent locally by base personnel. In a very real sense, base personnel have been "built-in'' visitors. There would also be enormous costs to Bermuda if it had to operate the runways for commercial traffic and be responsible for runway repairs, air traffic control, and such things as fire, weather and crash services. The United States has, since the Second World War, supplied those free.

There are however a number of people who feel that while the initial economic loss involved in the closure of the bases would be a trauma for Bermuda, there would also be substantial long-term benefits. Tiny Bermuda is very short of space and there are people who feel that if the base land is well handled, it can hugely benefit Bermuda in the future.

Bermuda needs room to expand. Closure of the bases would also provide land which should be reserved for future development, not preserved but reserved so that future Bermudians have land for homes. Some of the land could also be used for condominiums and houses for non-Bermudians who wish to live here thus replacing base personnel as permanent cash providing visitors. In an era when the world seems to be golf mad and when visitors complain that they cannot get golfing times on Bermuda's golf courses, we should be able to provide more golf. It might well be possible to provide a visitor community combining condos and houses with golf and a beach such as exist in Florida.

Bermudians seem generally to agree that there is not enough for visitors to do in Bermuda. Some of the land now occupied for the bases could well be used as an entertainment area for Bermudians and visitors alike. Much of this would provide revenue but some space should also be used for sport and recreation and there are wonderful beaches on base land. It would take very careful planning to provide income for Bermuda while preserving space for future Bermudians but it would be a magnificent if costly opportunity.