unsettled. Housing starts are down. Consumer spending is down. There are repeated warnings that the United States could be headed for another recession, not having properly recovered from the last one. Among those issuing warnings are some who predict that another recession will be far more severe than the last.

The basic problem seems to arise from the huge United States national debt, a state of affairs which is also true of its neighbour Canada, and the fact that the United States has a poor balance of payments which has turned it from a creditor country to a debtor country. There seems to be very little political will on behalf of either the politicians or the people of the United States to correct the situation which began with President Ronald Regan's administration and has gone unchecked ever since.

Another recession before Bermuda has had a breathing space to recover from the last one, would be a disaster. That would be especially true if, as is being reported, our own balance of payments situation is not as healthy as it was.

The Bermudian economy responded well to the last recession because a string of very successful Finance Ministers had been very protective of Bermuda's economy. Bermuda's economy was in excellent shape and the steps taken by Finance Minister the Hon. David Saul when it was clear we might face a recession, saved Bermudians from a great deal of hardship. Yes, Bermuda had some problems and some people were hard hit but the impact of the recession here was nothing like the impact in other places.

However we now need a period of recovery. If, instead of recovery, we get another recession, then things in Bermuda will be very bad indeed. In very many ways we dealt with the recession by using our resources but those resources are not endless. Companies used their reserves in order to keep going and to keep their staff employed and individuals spent savings to keep going in reasonable fashion. Indeed, there appears to have been a good deal of borrowing on the part of businesses which now need good years in order to repay their loans.

But Bermuda must face the fact that tourism has not recovered well and the hotels are still hurting. That means that the hotels, Bermuda's second largest employers, have not had a chance to restock their reserves and would be likely to be endangered by another recession. Another large employer, the major retail sector, suffered badly in the recession, is hard hit by overseas shopping and would be unlikely to withstand another recession in its present form. These retailers' impact on a large number of other service businesses which would be under great pressure.

The sad thing is that if another recession is coming, there is nothing that Bermuda can do to stop it. We are totally at the mercy of the economy of the giant to the west. So much for Independence. If the United States suffers, we suffer.

However, there are things we can do to help alleviate the impact on ourselves.

We can make sure that our own house is in good order. Are we doing that? Quite the contrary. We are damaging our economy by engaging in a debate on Independence.