blockbuster start, is in keeping with formal Tourism Department forecasts, a department document reveals.

Department officers before the start of the year forecast 1994 to finish 4.4 percent ahead of the 1993 -- not the ten percent rise that Tourism Minister the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge predicted in the House of Assembly.

A document obtained by The Royal Gazette forecasts minimal monthly increases this summer and, in some cases, outright declines in business.

Public expectations of a bumper year were fanned in the early months when the Island recorded massive weekly increases in arrivals.

By the end of March, the Island was more than 20 percent ahead of last year.

But April killed the momentum, finishing 4.1 percent below the same month in 1993.

The result was not significantly out of line with the department's forecast, and results since then show the Island's performance in line with the official forecast.

Tourism's forecast sheet showed March would finish 33 percent ahead of 1993 followed by April with no improvement.

May air arrivals were expected to finish 2.4 percent below last year. Official figures are not yet available, but indications are the month ended about four percent off May, 1993.

By the end of the first week of June, total air arrivals from January on were 4.7 percent ahead of last year.

Of the year to date, Tourism director Mr. Gary Phillips said April to early June, 1993 was a period marked by "really quite rapid growth which we felt couldn't be sustained for the second year running.

"We're not all that disappointed with results for far. What may appear to be an enormous drop to some, is not shocking to us.'' June and August are considered the pivotal months of the year. For the Department's forecasting to be realised, June must finish 6.3 percent ahead of the same month in 1993 and August 6.6 percent ahead.

These are significant gains for the high season because the Island's tourism industry is usually operating at or near full capacity.

If the first five days of June are any indication, the industry will be hard-pressed to live up to Tourism's expectations.

Government figures released last week show air arrivals for the week ending June 5 down 0.4 percent compared to the same week last year.

In a separate Tourism statistical survey released this week, April's drop was fuelled by a 7.6 percent drop in US air arrivals. The drop was partly offset by healthy arrival increases from Canada and the United States.