that he would challenge Premier Jennifer Smith for the leadership of the Progressive Labour Party, and therefore the Country.

Mr. Hodgson stated that he was prepared to serve the Country in any way that the Premier -- and the party -- wished him to.

The fact that Mr. Hodgson has been considering, with a good deal of encouragement from some of his Parliamentary colleagues, a challenge has been the worst kept secret of this Government.

It has sometimes been difficult to tell if Mr. Hodgson has been playing his cards close to his chest or if he is the most indecisive challenger since former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, whose consideration every four years of whether or not to run for the US Presidency became the stuff of legend.

What seems to be certain is that Premier Smith has lost the support of the majority of her House of Assembly colleagues. What is far from certain is whether she has the lost the support of the delegates to the PLP's conference, which begins next week.

In the event that Ms Smith is able to rally the delegates -- with the support of those party leaders whose support she still commands -- she would most likely survive the challenge.

That would be the end of Mr. Hodgson's career in high office, which may explain why he has been reluctant to openly challenge.

If this is correct, it opens a fascinating Constitutional issue, because the leader of the Government (as opposed to a party) must command a majority of the House of Assembly, and if Ms Smith is as unpopular among the PLP's MPs as she is made out to be, she may not have control of the House if it came to a vote. However, it is far from certain whether the MPs would really be prepared to overthrow Ms Smith over the desire of the PLP.

According to last week's poll, Mr. Hodgson (23.1 percent) is the leading candidate to replace Ms Smith, but with a lead of less than one percent over Development and Opportunity Minister Terry Lister (22.3 percent). No potential candidate has a commanding position in the Country -- indeed 26.8 percent of those polled said Ms Smith should remain as leader.

It is possible that a compromise candidate such as Home Affairs Minister Paula Cox or Works Minister Alex Scott -- or even Mr. Lister, although he may be doomed forever for previously having had the gall to consider challenging the late Frederick Wade for the leadership -- may emerge who could call on the support of both the delegates and the Parliamentary group.

The problem -- and the poll seems to capture it very well -- is that the PLP remains popular, but people are disappointed with the Premier's performance as leader.

This suggests that a change of leadership would enable the PLP to win the next Election.

But it is also possible that Ms Smith can survive and prosper. If she were to admit that she has been unaccessible and arrogant -- the two prime complaints against her -- she may well win back some of the goodwill she has squandered.

And it should also be remembered that another strong female leader -- Margaret Thatcher -- survived for some 13 years as British Prime Minister in spite of the fact that people did not like her much and she was ruthless in her management of the Cabinet andf the back bench.

But Ms Smith should also remember that Mrs. Thatcher was eventually done in by her determination to force through a wildly unpopular measure -- the poll tax -- and she may wish to consider whether her mismanagement of Constitutional change will drag her down in the same way.